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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?

Name: Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$623.86

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?

Vol

$623.86

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $623.86

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $623.86

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by May 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by May 31?	Poly	92%
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?	Poly	79%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31?	Poly	63%
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?	Poly	51%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31?	Poly	41%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31?	Poly	17%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

92%

Top Probability

$623.86

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast is equal to or above the specified price for any day between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered f

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast is equal to or above the specified price for any day between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).

A daily figure will be considered f

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast is equal to or above the specified price for any day between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD excha"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $624
* **Total Liquidity:** $30.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $236
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 79.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $377
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy