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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Who will be arrested before 2027?

Name: Who will be arrested before 2027?
End: 2026-04-30T21:55:30.975Z

Total Volume

$147.61

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Who will be arrested before 2027?

Vol

$147.61

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $147.61

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $147.61

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

24 markets tracked

Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(24)

Market	Platform	Price
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?	Poly	50%
Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?	Poly	50%
Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested before 2027?	Poly	50%
Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before 2027?	Poly	50%
Will Lisa Cook be arrested before 2027?	Poly	50%
Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before 2027?	Poly	48%
Will John Kerry be arrested before 2027?	Poly	48%
Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027?	Poly	36%
Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Poly	30%
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?	Poly	30%
Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027?	Poly	26%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before 2027?	Poly	18%
Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027?	Poly	16%
Will Bill Clinton be arrested before 2027?	Poly	16%
Will Susan Rice be arrested before 2027?	Poly	16%
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?	Poly	13%
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?	Poly	13%
Will Pam Bondi be arrested before 2027?	Poly	13%
Will Kash Patel be arrested before 2027?	Poly	13%
Will Candace Owens be arrested before 2027?	Poly	13%
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	Poly	13%
Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?	Poly	10%
Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?	Poly	8%
Will Joe Biden be arrested before 2027?	Poly	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$147.61

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuf

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be arrested before 2027?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuf

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, militar"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $148
* **Total Liquidity:** $9.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $13
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Candace Owens be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $104
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Bill Clinton be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $4
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Susan Rice be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will John Kerry be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Pam Bondi be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Kash Patel be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Lisa Cook be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Joe Biden be arrested before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $21
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics