When will Trump golf this weekend? (11/13-11/15)
K 13.8K contracts
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4
K 13.8K contracts
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4
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Not this weekend (Nov 13-15) at 70.5%.
Kalshi
- Not this weekend (Nov 13-15)70.5%
- Nov 1536.5%
- Nov 1422.5%
- Nov 131%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 13.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
4
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Snapshot observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a Kalshi event asking whether Donald Trump will play golf during the weekend of November 13 to 15, 2026. The event contains four separate yes or no markets, each tied to a specific day or to the full window. The main market asks whether he golfs on November 15, and another asks whether he golfs on November 14. A third asks whether he does not golf at all from November 13 through November 15, which is a different question from the single-day contracts. A fourth asks about November 13 [1].
Resolution depends on evidence. A day counts if Roll Call Factbase's presidential calendar feed shows its "golf" value as true, or if a White House pool report or a Getty Images, Reuters Connect, or AP Photos image unambiguously shows Trump playing golf that day [1]. Markets may resolve as soon as a day counts. Otherwise they resolve at expiration, 10:00 AM ET two days after the day, or after Sunday for the "not this weekend" contract [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC and retrieved at Nov 14, 2026, 2:22 AM UTC [1]. These times describe the snapshot, not live conditions. Each price is a snapshot of one platform's contract, not an executable quote or a verified probability.
At observation, the Yes price for golfing on November 15 was 0.65, and for November 14 it was 0.55 [1]. The Yes price for not golfing from November 13 through November 15 was 0.46, and for November 13 it was 0.025 [1]. Because these are different contracts with different wording and listed endpoints, their prices should not be combined, averaged, or treated as an arbitrage opportunity.
The listed endDate fields are November 15, 16, and 17 at 15:00 UTC. The source states the listed end time was not supplied, so these fields should be read as provider data, not as an announced event date [1].
The sample includes all four markets from this single platform event. The reported volume of 13,082 contracts is Kalshi's own total for this event [1]. Volume does not measure liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, and it contains no news, reporting on Trump's schedule beyond the resolution sources, or trader counts. It also does not establish how accurate such markets have been historically. The source lists the event as active at retrieval, but a snapshot cannot show what prices are now.
References
- Kalshi: When will Trump golf this weekend? (11/13-11/15). Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC.
Snapshot observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether Donald Trump will golf during the weekend of November 13 to 15, 2026, and it contains four binary contracts: golf on November 13, golf on November 14, golf on November 15, and not golfing from November 13 through November 15 [1]. A day counts as a Yes if Roll Call Factbase's presidential calendar feed shows its "golf" value as true, or if a White House pool report or a Getty Images, Reuters Connect, or AP Photos image "unambiguously shows Donald Trump playing golf that day" [1]. Markets "may resolve as soon as a day counts," and otherwise "resolve at expiration, 10:00 AM ET two days after the day, after Sunday for Not this weekend" [1].
The listed end dates differ by contract. The November 13 contract lists 2026-11-15 at 15:00 UTC, the November 14 contract lists 2026-11-16 at 15:00 UTC, and the November 15 and not-golf contracts list 2026-11-17 at 15:00 UTC [1]. Those times fall on the stated 10:00 AM Eastern schedule, but the source also says the listed end time was "not supplied," so the end dates should be read as dataset fields, not confirmed closing events.
Reading the snapshot
The market data was observed at Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC and retrieved at Nov 14, 2026, 2:22 AM UTC [1]. These are historical snapshot times and do not describe live prices now. The quoted Yes prices were 0.025 for November 13, 0.55 for November 14, 0.65 for November 15, and 0.46 for not golfing across the weekend [1]. Each contract's No price is the complement of its Yes price in the snapshot.
The contracts ask different questions, so their prices should not be combined or treated as one distribution. The day-level Yes prices do not sum to a single probability, and the not-golf contract covers a different window framing. A difference between contracts is a difference in wording and timing, not an arbitrage signal. The snapshot also shows the reported volume as 13,082 contracts, which is Kalshi's own unit and does not measure liquidity or the number of traders [1].
What remains uncertain
Only one provider, Kalshi, is represented. All four saved markets are included, but the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The source does not explain why prices moved, and the snapshot cannot show whether any day has already resolved. Prices here are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
References
- Kalshi: When will Trump golf this weekend? (11/13-11/15). Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 14, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a Kalshi event asking whether Donald Trump will play golf during the weekend of November 13 to 15, 2026. The rules tie each day to a yes or no question. Under the contract, if Trump golfs on a given day in November 2026, that day's market resolves to Yes [1]. A day counts when Roll Call Factbase's presidential calendar feed shows its "golf" value as true [1]. A day also counts when a White House pool report or a Getty Images, Reuters Connect, or AP Photos image unambiguously shows Trump playing golf that day [1]. The rules say markets may resolve as soon as a day counts. Otherwise, they resolve at expiration, which the rules set at 10:00 AM ET two days after the day in question, or after Sunday for the "Not this weekend" contract [1]. The saved event includes four contracts: one for each of November 13, 14, and 15, plus a contract asking whether Trump will not golf from November 13 to November 15 [1]. Each contract has a Yes and a No outcome. The snapshot in this article was observed at 2026-11-14T00:00:05.876Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-14T02:22:16.908Z. Those times describe when the data was captured, not the current state of the market or the outcome of any day. The provider lists the event as active and does not supply a listed end time [1]. The contract is a question about public activity that the rules link to specific data sources. Its wording makes the resolution path central: a day can be settled by the calendar feed or by qualifying photos or pool reports, and the rules say how timing works if no earlier resolution happens. Readers should check the provider's current rules and status directly, since the rules text here reflects the saved snapshot. For background on the subject's travel, Wikipedia has pages listing presidential trips made by Donald Trump in 2025 and in 2026 [2][3]. The 2026 page describes itself as covering Trump's trips during 2026, the second year of his second presidency as the 47th president [2]. The 2025 page describes the first year of that presidency [3]. Those excerpts do not list golf outings, so they do not establish how often Trump has golfed or whether any particular weekend will include golf.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Trump is recorded as playing golf on November 13, 14, or 15, 2026, using the sources named in the rules [1]. It is useful for understanding how event contracts convert a public activity into a yes or no question with defined evidence. The rules name a calendar feed and specific photo and report sources, and they set a resolution time, so the wording determines what counts [1]. The contract's prices are market snapshots and do not by themselves establish how likely golf is on any day.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-14 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What evidence can resolve a day as golf?
The rules name Roll Call Factbase's presidential calendar feed with a golf value of true. They also count a White House pool report or a Getty Images, Reuters Connect, or AP Photos image that unambiguously shows Trump playing golf that day [1].
When do these markets resolve?
Markets may resolve as soon as a day counts. Otherwise they resolve at expiration, 10:00 AM ET two days after the day, or after Sunday for the Not this weekend contract [1].
What does the Not this weekend contract cover?
The saved market asks whether Trump will not golf from November 13, 2026 to November 15, 2026 [1]. Its resolution timing follows the rule for Not this weekend, which is after Sunday [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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