Georgia Senate margin of victory

PredictPedia tracks a set of prediction-market contracts on the margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia. The contracts ask whether the margin between the top two candidates will fall within a specified range, and they are offered on two platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, which define the margin differently. Under Kalshi's rules, the margin is the Democratic Party's vote percentage minus the percentage of the candidate, party, or option that finishes immediately behind it if Democrats win, or minus the percentage of the first-place finisher if Democrats lose. A negative margin means Democrats lost. Kalshi says each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, that no rounding is applied, and that a tie for first place produces a margin of 0 [1]. Polymarket's contract uses a different construction. Its margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, calculated by dividing each candidate's valid votes by all valid votes cast. Its Democrat and Republican options refer to nominees of those parties, and independent candidates do not count as either party's option. If a reported value falls exactly between two brackets, Polymarket resolves to the higher bracket [2]. Because the two platforms measure different things, a Kalshi threshold and a Polymarket bracket should not be compared as if they were the same question. The contracts also differ in how they resolve. Kalshi states that its market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. Polymarket states that it will resolve based on the official vote count once that count has been made official, that a recount initiated before the total is official keeps the market open until the recount finishes, and that the market resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [2]. The Polymarket record lists an end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC. That is a listed field in the saved record and does not describe when the official count was certified. The price figures in this article are snapshots taken at 06:00 UTC on November 11, 2026, from the saved provider records. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Kalshi's saved event includes 29 markets, of which 12 are included here, so that sample is partial. Polymarket's saved event includes 10 markets, all of which are included. Because the samples are drawn separately from each event, rankings should not be combined across the two platforms.

Historical Context

The 2026 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Georgia. The Wikipedia article on the race reports that Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff was re-elected to a second term, defeating Republican representative Mike Collins [3]. Wikipedia is an encyclopedia that was retrieved for this background, so that statement is a retrieved secondary report and not an independent certification of the result. The contract rules quoted above determine how any official margin would be measured, and the provider records show that the markets were still active in the saved snapshot.

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