JD Vance out as VP by...?
PM $248.0K
1
1
JD Vance out as VP by...?
PM $248.0K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 4.8%.
Polymarket
- December 314.8%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $248.0K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance ceases to be Vice-President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vance's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The market asks whether JD Vance will cease to be Vice-President of the United States at any point between market creation and the specified date. The title reads "JD Vance out as VP by December 31?", while the rules use the phrase "the specified date (ET)" and list an end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. Readers should check the listed end time, not only the title, when deciding what period the contract covers.
The rules specify several paths to "Yes." An announcement of resignation or removal before the end date resolves the market to "Yes," "regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect" [1]. Detention or other permanent prevention from fulfilling the duties of the position can also qualify [1]. The resolution source is "official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-15T21:00:37.643Z [1]. The saved prices are 0.04 for "Yes" and 0.96 for "No" [1]. These figures describe that observation only. They are not live prices, executable quotes, or verified probabilities, and they do not show the current state of the market.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, and the record marks it as complete, with no partial sample [1]. Because only one contract is present, there is no comparison with other contracts or platforms here. Volume data is not included in this record, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many people are trading.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the price is at its observed level, and it contains no reporting on Vance's position beyond the contract wording. It does not establish whether any announcement or event has occurred. It also gives no information about actions outside the stated resolution criteria.
Readers comparing this contract with a differently worded market on another platform should compare the resolution language, the end time, and the resolution source before comparing prices. Differences in wording can change what a price represents, so a price gap alone does not indicate an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: JD Vance out as VP by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket contract titled "JD Vance out as VP by...?" The contract asks whether JD Vance will stop being Vice President of the United States at any point between the market's creation and its specified end date. According to the contract rules, it resolves Yes if he ceases to hold the office for any period of time in that window, and No otherwise [1]. The rules also address announcements. If a resignation or removal is announced before the end date, the market resolves Yes immediately, even if the announced change takes effect later [1]. The rules further state that Yes applies if Vance is detained, effectively removed from the position, or otherwise permanently prevented from carrying out the duties of the office during the market's timeframe [1]. The listed end time for the contract is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. The rules refer to the specified date in Eastern Time, and the market title refers to December 31 [1]. This listed end time is a contract closing time. It is not an announced event date, and the source does not describe any scheduled event tied to it. The resolution source is official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States. The rules also allow a consensus of credible reporting to be used [1]. Because the contract depends on whether an office-holding change occurs, the rules define what counts as a change, rather than describing any expected outcome.
Historical Context
Wikipedia's entry for JD Vance states that he represented Ohio in the United States Senate from 2023 to 2025 before serving as the 50th vice president [2]. The source for Usha Vance describes her as second lady since 2025 [3]. These are historical background points drawn from encyclopedia pages. They do not establish current events, and the entries do not describe any change in his office that would affect the contract.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow question: whether the office-holder ceases to be Vice President during the stated window [1]. Its rules are specific. An announced resignation or removal counts before it takes effect, and inability to perform the duties permanently can also count [1]. Traders reading the contract need these definitions because the title alone does not explain how an announcement, a detention, or a removal would be treated. The resolution method, official government information with credible reporting as a possible supplement, also determines what evidence would settle the question [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What would cause this contract to resolve Yes?
The contract resolves Yes if JD Vance ceases to be Vice President for any period between market creation and the specified end date [1]. An announcement of resignation or removal before the end date also triggers a Yes resolution, regardless of when the change takes effect [1]. Detention, effective removal, or a permanent inability to perform the duties of the office within the timeframe also qualifies [1].
What is the resolution source?
The rules name official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States as the resolution source. They also state that a consensus of credible reporting may be used [1].
Does the listed end date mean an event is scheduled for that day?
No. The listed end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z is the contract's closing time, which the rules tie to the specified date in Eastern Time [1]. It does not describe an announced event.
Who is JD Vance according to the supplied background sources?
Wikipedia describes him as an American politician, author, venture capitalist, and Marine Corps veteran serving as the 50th vice president of the United States [2]. Background sources like this do not confirm current office-holding status.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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