Which Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh as Fed chair? | PredictPedia

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14 markets tracked

Will Mike Lee vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

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Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Mike Lee vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	96%
Will Susan Collins vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	94%
Will Kevin Cramer vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	94%
Will John Kennedy vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	94%
Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	93%
Will Mitch McConnell vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	93%
Will Thom Tillis vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	89%
Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	88%
Will John Fetterman vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	83%
Will Maggie Hassan vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	39%
Will Rand Paul vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	36%
Will Jeanne Shaheen vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	33%
Will John Hickenlooper vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	23%
Will Ruben Gallego vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?	Kalshi	6%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh as Fed chair?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If X votes Yea for the next Fed Chair nominee before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The market shall resolve to **Yes** if: - X vote results in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes The market shall resolve to **No** if: - Such a vote results in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes - Should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be fo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Mike Lee votes Yea for the next Fed Chair nominee before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market shall resolve to **Yes** if:

- A vote results in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes

The marke"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Mike Lee vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Kevin Cramer vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will John Kennedy vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Thom Tillis vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.1% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Susan Collins vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Rand Paul vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Ruben Gallego vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Mitch McConnell vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.3% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Maggie Hassan vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 87.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.2% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Jeanne Shaheen vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will John Hickenlooper vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will John Fetterman vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/zpUUEO" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Which Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh as Fed chair?"></iframe>

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Which Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh as Fed chair?

Which Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh as Fed chair?

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Will Mike Lee vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

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Events (1)

Which Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh as Fed chair?

Markets (14)

Will Mike Lee vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Mike Lee vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Susan Collins vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Susan Collins vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Kevin Cramer vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Kevin Cramer vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will John Kennedy vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will John Kennedy vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

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Will Mike Lee vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh as Fed chair?

Will Mike Lee vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Mike Lee vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Susan Collins vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Susan Collins vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Kevin Cramer vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Kevin Cramer vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will John Kennedy vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will John Kennedy vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Related News & Context

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