Resolution Criteria
If the percentage of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK) that are cancelled during October 21, 2026 is at least 50%, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Primary Source Agency or its affiliates. Any references to the Primary Source Agency’s delay and cancellation page, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Primary Source Agency or its affiliates and Kalshi.
EXCLUDED EVENTS
“Excluded Event” means any event or circumstance arising from, or directly resulting from:
(i) Any act of unlawful interference with civil aviation, including sabotage, unlawful seizure of aircraft, or interference with air navigation facilities or services;
(ii) Any deliberate act or omission by any person, whether or not identified, undertaken with the purpose or reasonably foreseeable effect of disrupting operations at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK), including without limitation unauthorized unmanned aircraft operations, laser illumination, trespass upon or unauthorized presence within the air operations area, tampering with or destruction of airport, air carrier, air traffic control, or utility infrastructure serving John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK), and false reports or threats resulting in evacuation, ground stop, or suspension of operations;
(iii) Any malicious cyber incident affecting systems of John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK), any air carrier, or any air navigation service provider, as characterized by the affected entity or a governmental authority; or
(iv) Any security-related closure, ground stop, or operational suspension ordered by a governmental authority in response to an actual or suspected act described in clauses (i)–(iii) or to any actual or suspected act of unlawful violence, wherever occurring.
HOW THE CANCELLATION PERCENTAGE IS CALCULATED
The cancellation percentage is calculated by dividing the number of cancelled flights within the fixed schedule by the total number of scheduled flights and multiplying the result by 100. The result is carried to two decimal places without rounding; any digits beyond the second decimal place are truncated.
Schedule baseline: The schedule baseline for this market is October 19, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET.
Fixed scheduled-flight total: The binding total number of scheduled flights will be determined as of October 19, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This total consists of commercial passenger and cargo flights, including arrivals and departures combined, scheduled to operate at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK) during October 21, 2026.
The fixed total includes any flight subsequently cancelled and is not reduced by cancellations, schedule changes, or removals occurring after the schedule baseline. Flights added after the schedule baseline are excluded from both the scheduled-flight total and the cancellation count.
Cancelled flights: A flight counts as cancelled only if it is included in the fixed scheduled-flight total and is classified as cancelled by the Primary Source Agency as of the Expiration time. Cancellations made after the schedule baseline but before the beginning of October 21, 2026, including pre-emptive cancellations, are counted.
Reinstated flights: A flight initially classified as cancelled that is subsequently reinstated and operates during October 21, 2026 is not counted as cancelled.
Excluded flight outcomes: Delayed flights, diverted flights, and gate returns that ultimately depart are not counted as cancelled, regardless of the length of the delay.
Corrections and revisions: Corrections, retractions, or restatements made by the Primary Source Agency before Expiration will be considered. Revisions made after Expiration will not be considered.
Local time and flight attribution: All dates and times relating to the scheduling and operation of flights are interpreted in the local time of John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK) unless otherwise specified. Each flight is attributed to October 21, 2026 according to its originally scheduled date of operation at the airport.
AIRPORT CLOSURE
If John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK) is fully closed and no scheduled flight operates for the entirety of October 21, 2026, the cancellation percentage will be deemed 100.00%.
If the scheduled-flight total is zero because the airport is closed, or has been ordered or announced to be closed, for the entirety of October 21, 2026, the cancellation percentage will be deemed 100.00%. If the scheduled-flight total is zero for any other reason, the outcome will be determined pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook. This market will close and expire early if the outcome is determined before the scheduled expiration time.
