
100¢
$0.00
2
Mar 17, 2027
in 11 months
100¢
$0.00
2
Will the margin of victory for Kat Abughazaleh in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 4% and 8%?
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If the margin of victory for Kat Abughazaleh in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary falls between 4% and 8%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Kat Abughazaleh minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Kat Abughazaleh if Kat Abughazaleh wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Kat Abughazaleh loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by Kat Abughazaleh minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Kat Abughazaleh if Kat Abughazaleh wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Kat Abughazaleh loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Kat Abughazaleh minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Kat Abughazaleh wins, or the electoral votes received by Kat Abughazaleh minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Kat Abughazaleh does not. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Kat Abughazaleh runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Kat Abughazaleh will be summed. If Kat Abughazaleh wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Kat Abughazaleh loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Kat Abughazaleh ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Kat Abughazaleh is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes). This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.