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Will the margin of victory for Ken Calvert in the 2026 California 40th Congressional District primary be between 3% and 6%?

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Will the margin of victory for Ken Calvert in the 2026 California 40th Congressional District primary be between 3% and 6%?

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Will the margin of victory for Ken Calvert in the 2026 California 40th Congressional District primary be between 3% and 6%?

Part of: CA-40 Primary margin of victory?

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100¢

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VolTotal Volume

$0.00

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Outcomes

2

Ends

Jun 3, 2027

in 11 months

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Will the margin of victory for Ken Calvert in the 2026 California 40th Congressional District primary be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Ken Calvert in the 2026 California 40th Congressional District primary be between 3% and 6%?

No

100¢

|

Vol

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Yes0.0¢

No100.0¢

Price History

Will the margin of victory for Ken Calvert in the 2026 California 40th Congressional District primary be between 3% and 6%?

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Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

328 Days Left

June 03, 2027 • 2:00 PM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

CA-40 Primary margin of victory?

CA-40 Primary margin of victory?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

June 03, 2027

2:00 PM GMT+0

Official Sources

Markets are resolved using official government and institutional sources.

Accuracy

100%

Resolved

8,750

Avg Time

< 24 hours

Disputes

0%

Resolution Criteria

If the margin of victory for Ken Calvert in the 2026 California 40th Congressional District primary falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ken Calvert minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Calvert if Ken Calvert wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ken Calvert loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by Ken Calvert minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Calvert if Ken Calvert wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ken Calvert loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ken Calvert minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ken Calvert wins, or the electoral votes received by Ken Calvert minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ken Calvert does not. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Calvert runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ken Calvert will be summed. If Ken Calvert wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ken Calvert loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ken Calvert ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ken Calvert is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes). This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

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