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Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 15% and 20%?

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Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 15% and 20%?

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Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 15% and 20%?

Part of: CA-11 primary margin of victory?

NoNo Price

100¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jun 2, 2027

in 11 months

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Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 15% and 20%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 15% and 20%?

No

100¢

|

Vol

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Yes0.0¢

No100.0¢

Price History

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 15% and 20%?

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Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

327 Days Left

June 02, 2027 • 2:00 PM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

CA-11 primary margin of victory?

CA-11 primary margin of victory?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

June 02, 2027

2:00 PM GMT+0

Official Sources

Markets are resolved using official government and institutional sources.

Accuracy

100%

Resolved

8,750

Avg Time

< 24 hours

Disputes

0%

Resolution Criteria

If the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary falls within 15% to 20%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Scott Wiener minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Scott Wiener if Scott Wiener wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Scott Wiener loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by Scott Wiener minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Scott Wiener if Scott Wiener wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Scott Wiener loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Scott Wiener minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Scott Wiener wins, or the electoral votes received by Scott Wiener minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Scott Wiener does not. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Scott Wiener runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Scott Wiener will be summed. If Scott Wiener wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Scott Wiener loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Scott Wiener ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Scott Wiener is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes). This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.