Resolution Criteria
If a coalition that includes Vox make up the next elected ruling government of Spain before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances).
Additionally,
A “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”).
If, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party's status.
Every market on this event names a single party or electoral coalition on its own, so no market on this event specifies a confidence and supply arrangement. What that means here:
A party whose representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position resolves YES. In Spain, a minister (ministro or ministra) or a secretary of state (secretario or secretaria de Estado) appointed by Royal Decree holds a qualifying position
A party that only supports the government from outside it, under a confidence and supply or investiture-support agreement, and holds no ministerial or cabinet-level position, does NOT resolve Yes
Advisers and cabinet staff are NOT ministerial or cabinet-level positions
Holding seats in the Cortes Generales is neither required nor sufficient
The government evaluated is the first government formed following the Spanish general election of November 29, 2026. The outgoing government that remains in office until that government is appointed is a caretaker government and does not count. Frente Amplio is the electoral coalition of Movimiento Sumar, Izquierda Unida, Más Madrid and Comuns; the Frente Amplio market resolves Yes if a qualifying officeholder is a member of any party that submitted the Frente Amplio list, and that officeholder also counts toward their own party's market where one is listed. Otherwise, each officeholder is attributed to the party of which that officeholder is a member, as recorded in official government sources or, if those are silent, in a formal coalition agreement; a minister with no party affiliation does not count toward any market.
If no candidate is invested as Prime Minister within the period set by Article 99 of the Spanish Constitution and the Cortes are dissolved for a further election before any government is formed, the first official, stable formation of a government following that further election governs resolution.
Additional clarification(s):
Dissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in a market dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs.
Legal name change: If a party named in a market undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in that market. This market will close and expire early if the government is officially formed.
