BackKKALSHI

Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026?

Yes0%

Vol$0.00

Outcomes2

0%

TradeTrade on Kalshi

MarketKALSHIactive

Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026?

MarketKALSHIactiveOther

Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026?

Part of: 2026: Trump's bad year?

NoNo Price

100¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jan 7, 2028

in over 1 year

Trade on Kalshi

Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026?

Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026?

No

100¢

|

Vol

$0.00

|

Outcomes

2

Yes0.1¢

No99.9¢

Price History

Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

546 Days Left

January 07, 2028 • 3:00 PM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

2026: Trump's bad year?

2026: Trump's bad year?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

January 07, 2028

3:00 PM GMT+0

Official Sources

Markets are resolved using official government and institutional sources.

Accuracy

100%

Resolved

8,750

Avg Time

< 24 hours

Disputes

0%

Resolution Criteria

If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring **ALL** specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: - "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL - "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS - "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period. Additional specifications: - POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - the threshold need only be met once during the period - CONTROL - based on the Speaker of the House on Feb 1, 2027 - NBERRECSS - requires two consecutive quarters in which the the most recent estimates of seasonally adjusted annualized percent changes of quarterly US real GDP are negative This market will close and expire early if any component becomes impossible to occur (resolving to No) or all components have been satisfied (resolving to Yes).

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.