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Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?

Yes5%+0.8%

Vol$114.51K

Outcomes2

5%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?

Part of: Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

NoNo Price

95¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$114.51K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Oct 1, 2026

in 25 days

Trade on Polymarket

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?

No

95¢

|

Vol

$114.51K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes5.1¢

No95.0¢

Price History

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

25 Days Left

October 01, 2026 • 3:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

October 01, 2026

3:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.