BackPPOLYMARKET

Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?

Yes80%-0.5%

Vol$6.21K

Outcomes2

80%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?

Part of: Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?

YesYes Price

80¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$6.21K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jan 1, 2027

in 4 months

Trade on Polymarket

Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?

Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?

Yes

80¢

|

Vol

$6.21K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes80.0¢

No20.0¢

Price History

Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

117 Days Left

January 01, 2027 • 4:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?

Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

January 01, 2027

4:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.