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Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?

Yes 68.0%

Vol$57.0K

SnapshotOct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

Yes 68.0%

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Event

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveClimate

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?

Part of: What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

YesYes Price

68.0¢

VolTotal Volume

$57.0K

Outcomes

Ends

Apr 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC

Trade on Polymarket

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?

Yes

68.0¢

Vol

$57.0K

Outcomes

Trade

Yes68.0¢

No32.0¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 68.0%. Snapshot Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Apr 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27. The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.

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Resolution Info