GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

Name: What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
End: 2027-04-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$24.05K

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Markets

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What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

Vol

$24.05K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $24.05K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $24.05K

100%

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5 markets tracked

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Poly	69%
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	Poly	28%
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?	Poly	5%
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?	Poly	1%
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

69%

Top Probability

$24.05K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. This market may resolve immediately once NOAA has p

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 1, 2027 (208 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.

This market may resolve immediately once NOAA has p

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".

The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 20"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $24.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.04)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $801
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $8.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $10.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 68.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate

What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

Volume$24.05K

Markets5

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POLYMARKET

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 68.5¢No 31.5¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?

This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has

POLYMARKET

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 28.0¢No 72.0¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?

This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No". The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month sea

POLYMARKET

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?

This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No". The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month sea

POLYMARKET

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?

This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +1.5°C and below +2.0°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No". The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seas

POLYMARKET

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 0.1¢No 100.0¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?

This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No". The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 20

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Next Market Closes

207d 5h remaining

Apr 01, 2027 3:59 AM

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Average Yes Price

20¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/rnNO-0" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?"></iframe>

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What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

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Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

Markets (5)

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?

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Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?

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