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Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?

Yes 0.7%

Vol$6.3K

SnapshotOct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

Yes 0.7%

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Event

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Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?

Part of: What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

YesYes Price

0.7¢

VolTotal Volume

$6.3K

Outcomes

Ends

Apr 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC

Trade on Polymarket

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?

Yes

0.7¢

Vol

$6.3K

Outcomes

Trade

Yes0.7¢

No99.3¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 0.7%. Snapshot Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Apr 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +1.5°C and below +2.0°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No". The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.

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Resolution Info