What is the current price for "Texas Senate: margin of victory"?

The leading outcome "No" is currently trading at 97.5% probability.

How many markets are available for "Texas Senate: margin of victory"?

There are 10 markets available for this event on Kalshi.

What is the trading volume for "Texas Senate: margin of victory"?

Total trading volume is approximately $24K.

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Texas Senate: margin of victory

Vol24.1K contracts

Markets10

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Event Group

EventKALSHI

Single EventKALSHIElections

Texas Senate: margin of victory

Name: Texas Senate: margin of victory
Start: 2026-10-28T04:00:50.967Z
End: 2026-11-27T04:00:50.967Z

Part of: Texas Senate: margin of victory

On Nov 3, 2026 If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is X Y Z 8%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Ken Paxton minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses. If Ken Paxton wins, the margin will be positive; if Ken Paxton loses, the margin will be negative; if Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

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24.1K contracts

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Texas Senate: margin of victory

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24.1K contracts

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Market snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed.

Market Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 0% and 2%?

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All Markets(10)

Market	Outcome price
Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 0% and 2%?	Yes 25.5%
Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 2% and 4%?	Yes 22.0%
Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 0% and 2%?	Yes 21.0%
Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 4% and 6%?	Yes 14.5%
Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 2% and 4%?	Yes 10.5%

Event Overview

Market Resolution Rules

Important Notes

Markets resolve based on official data sources specified in the rules
Resolution may be delayed if official data is not immediately available
Kalshi markets are regulated by the CFTC and follow strict resolution procedures
Always verify the exact resolution criteria before trading

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Markets (10)

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KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 0% and 2%?

If the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is within 0% to 2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by James Talarico minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind James Talarico if James Talarico wins, or the candidate that finishes first if James Talarico loses. If James Talarico wins, the margin will be positive; if James Talarico loses, the margin will be negative; if James Talarico ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If James Talarico runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Yes outcome25.5%

Yes

Volume5.5K contracts

LiquidityN/A

End DateNov 03, 2027

View Details

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 2% and 4%?

If the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is within 2% to 4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by James Talarico minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind James Talarico if James Talarico wins, or the candidate that finishes first if James Talarico loses. If James Talarico wins, the margin will be positive; if James Talarico loses, the margin will be negative; if James Talarico ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If James Talarico runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Yes outcome22.0%

Yes

Volume3.8K contracts

LiquidityN/A

End DateNov 03, 2027

View Details

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 0% and 2%?

If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is within 0% to 2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Ken Paxton minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses. If Ken Paxton wins, the margin will be positive; if Ken Paxton loses, the margin will be negative; if Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Yes outcome21.0%

Yes

Volume4.1K contracts

LiquidityN/A

End DateNov 03, 2027

View Details

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 4% and 6%?

If the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is within 4% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by James Talarico minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind James Talarico if James Talarico wins, or the candidate that finishes first if James Talarico loses. If James Talarico wins, the margin will be positive; if James Talarico loses, the margin will be negative; if James Talarico ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If James Talarico runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Yes outcome14.5%

Yes

Volume2.2K contracts

LiquidityN/A

End DateNov 03, 2027

View Details

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 2% and 4%?

If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is within 2% to 4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Ken Paxton minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses. If Ken Paxton wins, the margin will be positive; if Ken Paxton loses, the margin will be negative; if Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Yes outcome10.5%

Yes

Volume1.7K contracts

LiquidityN/A

End DateNov 03, 2027

View Details

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 6% and 8%?

If the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is within 6% to 8%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by James Talarico minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind James Talarico if James Talarico wins, or the candidate that finishes first if James Talarico loses. If James Talarico wins, the margin will be positive; if James Talarico loses, the margin will be negative; if James Talarico ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If James Talarico runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Yes outcome6.5%

Yes

Volume280.36 contracts

LiquidityN/A

End DateNov 03, 2027

View Details

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 4% and 6%?

If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is within 4% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Ken Paxton minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses. If Ken Paxton wins, the margin will be positive; if Ken Paxton loses, the margin will be negative; if Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Yes outcome5.0%

Yes

Volume3.5K contracts

LiquidityN/A

End DateNov 03, 2027

View Details

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 6% and 8%?

If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is within 6% to 8%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Ken Paxton minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses. If Ken Paxton wins, the margin will be positive; if Ken Paxton loses, the margin will be negative; if Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Yes outcome3.0%

Yes

Volume2.3K contracts

LiquidityN/A

End DateNov 03, 2027

View Details

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 8%?

If the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is at or above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by James Talarico minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind James Talarico if James Talarico wins, or the candidate that finishes first if James Talarico loses. If James Talarico wins, the margin will be positive; if James Talarico loses, the margin will be negative; if James Talarico ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If James Talarico runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Yes outcome3.0%

Yes

Volume280.36 contracts

LiquidityN/A

End DateNov 03, 2027

View Details

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 8%?

If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is at or above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Ken Paxton minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses. If Ken Paxton wins, the margin will be positive; if Ken Paxton loses, the margin will be negative; if Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Yes outcome2.5%

Yes

Volume481.94 contracts

LiquidityN/A

End DateNov 03, 2027

View Details

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Texas Senate: margin of victory

Texas Senate: margin of victory

Texas Senate: margin of victory

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Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 0% and 2%?

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Event Overview

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