Texas Senate: margin of victory
K 24.1K contracts
1
10
Texas Senate: margin of victory
K 24.1K contracts
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is James Talarico, 0-2% at 25.5%.
Kalshi
- James Talarico, 0-2%25.5%
- James Talarico, 2-4%22%
- Ken Paxton, 0-2%21%
- James Talarico, 4-6%14.5%
- Ken Paxton, 2-4%10.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 24.1K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
On Nov 3, 2026 If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is X Y Z 8%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Ken Paxton minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses. If Ken Paxton wins, the margin will be positive; if Ken Paxton loses, the margin will be negative; if Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T09:00:05.886Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event, "Texas Senate: margin of victory," is a Kalshi event set for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas. Its excerpt defines the margin as the vote share of Ken Paxton minus the vote share of the candidate immediately behind him if he wins, or the candidate who finishes first if he loses. Margins are negative if Paxton loses and zero if he ties [1]. Each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, with no rounding applied [1]. The excerpt also says that "This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published" [1].
The listed market titles name both James Talarico and Ken Paxton. The supplied rule text is written around Paxton's margin, so the excerpt does not fully define how Talarico-titled contracts are settled. Readers should check the full rules before treating those contracts as mirror images.
Listed end times are inconsistent in the evidence. The rule text refers to "On Nov 3, 2026," but every market shows an end date of 2027-11-03T14:00:00.000Z [1]. The event listing states that its end time was "not supplied" [1]. The excerpt does not explain this gap.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-25T09:00:05.886Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-25T09:28:07.027Z [1]. The status for all ten markets is "active" [1]. These are snapshots of quoted Yes and No prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The sample includes all ten saved markets for this event, and it is not partial [1]. Among them, the highest Yes quote is 0.175 for Talarico's 4% to 6% range, followed by 0.17 for Paxton's 0% to 2% range [1]. Yes prices for the ranges at 2% to 4% for Talarico and 0% to 2% for Talarico are 0.165 and 0.14 [1]. The lowest Yes quote is 0.02 for Paxton's margin of at least 8% [1].
The sample warning states that the saved markets "do not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because of that, a range that is absent from this sample should not be read as having a lower price. Trading volume is not included in the evidence used here, so these prices cannot be read as liquidity or as a count of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price moved or whether traders agree. Prices from different candidates' markets should not be averaged into a single field. The contract close, resolution date, and certified-results timing are not settled by these excerpts alone, and the conflict between the November 3, 2026 rule wording and the 2027 listed end date is unresolved.
References
- Kalshi: Texas Senate: margin of victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T09:00:05.886Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
The Kalshi event "Texas Senate: margin of victory" is a contract about the gap between the top two finishers in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas, which the event describes as taking place on Nov 3, 2026 [1]. The Wikipedia article on that race says the election "will be held" on November 3, 2026, and names Republican state attorney general Ken Paxton and Democratic state representative James Talarico as the nominees for their parties [3]. That article describes the race as scheduled, so it is background for the contract and does not report any result. The contract rules define the margin as Ken Paxton's vote share minus the vote share of the candidate who finishes immediately behind him if he wins, or minus the vote share of the candidate who finishes first if he loses [1]. On that definition, the margin is positive if Paxton wins, negative if he loses, and 0 if he ties for first place [1]. Each range in the event includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, and no rounding is applied. The rules give an example in which a margin of 5.99999% falls in the 5 to 6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% falls in the 6 to 7% range [1]. If Paxton is listed under more than one party or appears multiple times on a ballot, the rules say votes for the same underlying candidate are summed [1]. The saved event contains ten markets. They are range contracts on margins for both Paxton and Talarico, including ranges such as 0 to 2%, 2 to 4%, and at least 8% [1]. Each market is a separate yes or no contract on one range, so the set describes different possible outcomes rather than a single combined forecast. The listed prices are snapshot observations from the provider. They are not executable quotes and should not be read as verified probabilities. The saved records list an end date of November 3, 2027, but the event rules do not state a listed end time, and the event says it will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. The 2027 date in the saved records is therefore a data field, not a confirmed resolution date.
Historical Context
The supplied sources include one earlier Texas Senate race. The 2018 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 6, 2018. Republican incumbent Ted Cruz won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic congressman Beto O'Rourke, and the primary was held on March 6, 2018 [2]. The supplied material does not connect that race to the current margin contract, so it serves only as background on the Texas Senate seat.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how wide the winning margin is in the 2026 Texas Senate race, using the specific formula in the event rules [1]. Because the margin is signed, a result in which Paxton loses produces a negative value, which the rules treat differently from a win of the same size [1]. The range structure means each contract pays only if the measured margin falls within one specified band, and the rules set precise boundary handling, including exclusive upper bounds and no rounding [1]. Readers should check the full provider rules before relying on how the Talarico-titled contracts are settled, because the supplied excerpt sets out the margin calculation in terms of Paxton and does not spell out the settlement wording for each Talarico market.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does this contract ask who wins the Texas Senate race?
Not directly. The contract measures the margin, defined using Ken Paxton's vote share against the relevant opponent, and the margin is negative if Paxton loses [1]. The ranges therefore concern the size and direction of the gap rather than a simple winner question.
How is a tie handled?
If Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin is set to 0 under the rules [1].
Are the percentage boundaries rounded?
No rounding is applied. Ranges include their lower bound and exclude their upper bound, so a margin of exactly 6% falls in the 6 to 7% range rather than the 5 to 6% range [1].
When could the event close early?
The event will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1].
Why do some saved market records show a 2027 end date?
The saved market records list an end date of November 3, 2027. The event rules name the election date as November 3, 2026, and the provider status is listed as active with no listed end time supplied [1]. The 2027 date is a field in the saved data and is not an announced resolution or certification date.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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