California Governor Election: Turnout
PM $22.0K
1
10
California Governor Election: Turnout
PM $22.0K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 12.5M-13M at 32%.
Polymarket
- 12.5M-13M32%
- 13M-13.5M27%
- 14.5M+14.3%
- 14M-14.5M13.5%
- 12M-12.5M10%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $22.0K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks how many valid votes will be cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California. The rules state that the market "will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California" [1]. Invalidated or blank votes are not included, and in ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total is used [1].
Each contract covers a bracket of that total. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket [1]. If the results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not an announced result date, and the March 31, 2027 deadline is a rule in the contract, not an event schedule.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-18T06:00:10.215Z [1]. These values describe that earlier observation and should not be read as live prices. The sample covers 10 markets from one provider event, and the coverage record marks all 10 as included with no partial sample [1].
Among the included brackets, the highest Yes price is 0.235 for 13,000,000 to 13,500,000 votes [1]. Next are 0.178 for 14,000,000 to 14,500,000 votes and 0.165 for 10,500,000 to 11,000,000 votes [1]. The lowest Yes price is 0.0355 for 11,000,000 to 11,500,000 votes [1]. The two tail contracts, "less than 10,500,000" at 0.0965 and "14,500,000 or more" at 0.059, have different wording from the bounded brackets and should be read on their own terms [1].
These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Volume and sampling order do not show liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The source notes that all saved markets for this event are included, but "This does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The sample therefore does not show the full range of possible outcomes, and no omitted bracket should be assumed to have a particular price.
The record does not show prices after the observation time, the reasons any price moved, or whether the results have been certified. Brackets from different platforms should not be averaged or compared as if they were the same contract, because wording, close times, and resolution rules can differ.
References
- Polymarket: California Governor Election: Turnout. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 18, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia market concerns the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California. Its listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The election itself is scheduled for November 3, 2026, according to Wikipedia's article on the race [2]. The contract's listed end time is a provider setting, not a separate announced event, and the actual vote count is determined by official reporting and certification. The contract is a turnout contract, not a winner contract. Its rules say it resolves according to the total number of valid votes cast for Governor [1]. Each market in this event asks whether that total will fall within a particular numeric range, such as a bracket between two specified values, or below or above a threshold [1]. The market set in this record covers a range of brackets rather than a single outcome. The resolution source is the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election. The rules also allow an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting to be used [1]. Only certified votes for candidates or non-candidate options count, and invalidated or blank votes are excluded [1]. The rules further specify that in ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total is used [1].
Historical Context
The 2026 race follows earlier California gubernatorial contests. Wikipedia's article on the 2006 election reports that it took place on November 7, 2006, with primaries held on June 6, 2006 [3]. The incumbent Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, won re-election in that contest, and his main opponent was California State Treasurer Phil Angelides, the Democratic nominee [3]. That history is background only and does not indicate how the 2026 count will turn out. For the 2026 election, Wikipedia states that an election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the next governor, and that the nominees are Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton [2]. This describes the race as covered by that article at the time it was retrieved, and it is not a confirmation of later events.
Why It Matters
The contract measures participation in one statewide race, expressed as a count of valid votes for Governor. Because the rules define the measure in terms of certified valid votes, it depends on how the state counts and certifies ballots, not on news coverage or on the outcome of the contest [1]. Blank and invalidated ballots are excluded from the total, which means the measured figure is narrower than all ballots returned [1]. The rules include two specific resolution mechanics. If a reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket [1]. If the results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket [1]. Readers should check these rules directly on the provider page before relying on a particular bracket.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-18 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does this contract resolve on?
It resolves according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California [1]. Invalidated or blank votes are not included, and all certified votes for candidates or non-candidate options are included [1].
What happens if the final count is not known by the deadline?
The rules state that if the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket [1].
How is a value exactly on a bracket boundary handled?
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range bracket [1].
Which source is used to determine the result?
The primary resolution source is the official results of the election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying results. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Does this contract predict who will win the governor's race?
No. The contract's rules are based on the total number of valid votes, not the winning candidate [1]. The Wikipedia article identifies the nominees as Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton [2], but the rules do not connect the turnout count to either candidate's result.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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