GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026

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US nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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5 markets tracked

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q2 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q2 2026?	Kalshi	60%
Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.0% in Q2 2026?	Kalshi	51%
Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 0.5% in Q2 2026?	Kalshi	51%
Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.0% in Q2 2026?	Kalshi	50%
Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.5% in Q2 2026?	Kalshi	50%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

60%

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$0.00

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About This Event

In Q2 2026 If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data, FRED, series, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 8:25 AM ET on Jul 30, 2026. The data is expected to be released at 8:30 AM ET on that date. Please see the Rulebook's Instructions section on how to calculate the Underlying. In summary, go to the Source Agency link,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Q2 2026

If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data, FRED, series, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 8:25 AM ET on Jul 30, 2026. The data is expected to be released at 8:30 AM ET on that date. Please see the Rulebook's Instructions section on how to calculate the Underlying. In summary, go to the Source Agency link, 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 2.5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:25 AM E"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.5% in Q2 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.0% in Q2 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q2 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.0% in Q2 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 0.5% in Q2 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026

Volume$0.00

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q2 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.0¢No 40.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q2 2026?

If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 1.5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:25 AM E

KALSHI

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.0% in Q2 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.0% in Q2 2026?

If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 2.0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:25 AM E

KALSHI

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 0.5% in Q2 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 0.5% in Q2 2026?

If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:25 AM E

KALSHI

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.0% in Q2 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.0% in Q2 2026?

If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:25 AM E

KALSHI

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.5% in Q2 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.5% in Q2 2026?

If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 2.5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:25 AM E

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US nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026

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Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q2 2026?

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Events (1)

US nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026

Markets (5)

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.0% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.0% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 0.5% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 0.5% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.0% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.0% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.5% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.5% in Q2 2026?

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Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q2 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.5% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.0% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.0% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 0.5% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 0.5% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.0% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 1.0% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.5% in Q2 2026?

Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.5% in Q2 2026?

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