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Which states will experience exceptional drought? (6/4 - 7/30)

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Which states will experience exceptional drought? (6/4 - 7/30)

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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14 markets tracked

Will Oregon have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Oregon have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?	Kalshi	69%
Will Virginia have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?	Kalshi	52%
Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?	Kalshi	45%
Will Kansas have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?	Kalshi	28%
Will Washington have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?	Kalshi	25%
Will Louisiana have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?	Kalshi	23%
Will North Dakota have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?	Kalshi	21%
Will Tennessee have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will Minnesota have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?	Kalshi	18%
Will Iowa have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?	Kalshi	18%
Will Arizona have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?	Kalshi	17%
Will California have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will Indiana have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will Illinois have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?	Kalshi	4%

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About This Event

June 4–July 30, 2026 If the maximum drought monitor category X during June 4–July 30, 2026 is at least D4, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early upon release of U.S. Drought Monitor data confirming the maximum drought category Y during June 4–July 30, 2026. This market will close and expire early upon release of U.S. Drought Monitor data confirming the maximum drought category X during June 4–July 30, 2026.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which states will experience exceptional drought? (6/4 - 7/30)
**Category:** Climate and Weather | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** June 4–July 30, 2026

If the maximum drought monitor category X during June 4–July 30, 2026 is at least D4, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early upon release of U.S. Drought Monitor data confirming the maximum drought category Y during June 4–July 30, 2026. This market will close and expire early upon release of U.S. Drought Monitor data confirming the maximum drought category X during June 4–July 30, 2026.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the maximum drought monitor category in Washington during June 4–July 30, 2026 is at least D4, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early upon release of U.S. Drought Monitor data confirming the maximum drought category for Washington during Ju"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Washington have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Virginia have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Tennessee have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Oregon have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 68.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will North Dakota have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Minnesota have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Louisiana have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Kansas have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Indiana have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Illinois have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Iowa have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will California have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Arizona have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIClimate and Weather

Which states will experience exceptional drought? (6/4 - 7/30)

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KALSHI

Will Oregon have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 68.5¢No 31.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will Oregon have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

If the maximum drought monitor category in Oregon during June 4–July 30, 2026 is at least D4, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early upon release of U.S. Drought Monitor data confirming the maximum drought category for Oregon during June 4–Jul

KALSHI

Will Virginia have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 52.0¢No 48.0¢

KALSHIClimate

Will Virginia have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

If the maximum drought monitor category in Virginia during June 4–July 30, 2026 is at least D4, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early upon release of U.S. Drought Monitor data confirming the maximum drought category for Virginia during June 4

KALSHI

Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 44.5¢No 55.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

If the maximum drought monitor category in Missouri during June 4–July 30, 2026 is at least D4, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early upon release of U.S. Drought Monitor data confirming the maximum drought category for Missouri during June 4

KALSHI

Will Kansas have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 28.0¢No 72.0¢

KALSHIClimate

Will Kansas have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

If the maximum drought monitor category in Kansas during June 4–July 30, 2026 is at least D4, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early upon release of U.S. Drought Monitor data confirming the maximum drought category for Kansas during June 4–Jul

KALSHI

Will Washington have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will Washington have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

If the maximum drought monitor category in Washington during June 4–July 30, 2026 is at least D4, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early upon release of U.S. Drought Monitor data confirming the maximum drought category for Washington during Ju

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/13rv6t" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Which states will experience exceptional drought? (6/4 - 7/30)"></iframe>

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Which states will experience exceptional drought? (6/4 - 7/30)

Which states will experience exceptional drought? (6/4 - 7/30)

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Will Oregon have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Which states will experience exceptional drought? (6/4 - 7/30)

Markets (14)

Will Oregon have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Oregon have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Virginia have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Virginia have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Kansas have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Kansas have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Washington have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Washington have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Oregon have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which states will experience exceptional drought? (6/4 - 7/30)

Will Oregon have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Oregon have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Virginia have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Virginia have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Kansas have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Kansas have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Washington have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

Will Washington have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?

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