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Who will join the Trump administration before July? | PredictPedia

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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Who will join the Trump administration before July?

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Who will join the Trump administration before July?

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11 markets tracked

Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration?

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Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	17%
Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	16%
Will Marc Rowan join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	12%
Will Eric Adams join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	11%
Will Phil McGraw join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	11%
Will Rick Rieder join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	10%
Will Nicki Minaj join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	10%
Will Steve Bannon join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	9%
Will Ken Paxton join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	7%
Will Judy Shelton join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	5%
Will Elon Musk join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

17%

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About This Event

Before Jul 1, 2026 If X joins the Presidential Administration before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, April 18, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will join the Trump administration before July?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jul 1, 2026

If X joins the Presidential Administration before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Ken Paxton joins the Presidential Administration before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this Contract, Ken Paxton "joins" the Presidential Administration if ANY of the following occurs after Issuance and is publicly announced before Jul 1, 2026:
"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Ken Paxton join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Steve Bannon join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Rick Rieder join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Phil McGraw join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Nicki Minaj join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Marc Rowan join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Judy Shelton join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Elon Musk join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Eric Adams join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Average Yes Price

10¢

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Who will join the Trump administration before July?

Who will join the Trump administration before July?

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Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration?

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Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration?

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Events (1)