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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Who will join the Trump administration before July?

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Who will join the Trump administration before July?

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11 markets tracked

Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration?

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Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	22%
Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	11%
Will Marc Rowan join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	11%
Will Phil McGraw join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	10%
Will Rick Rieder join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	9%
Will Nicki Minaj join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	9%
Will Eric Adams join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	8%
Will Steve Bannon join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	8%
Will Ken Paxton join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	6%
Will Judy Shelton join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	5%
Will Elon Musk join the Trump administration?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

22%

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About This Event

Before Jul 1, 2026 If X joins the Presidential Administration before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will join the Trump administration before July?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jul 1, 2026

If X joins the Presidential Administration before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Ken Paxton joins the Presidential Administration before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this Contract, Ken Paxton "joins" the Presidential Administration if ANY of the following occurs after Issuance and is publicly announced before Jul 1, 2026:
"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Ken Paxton join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Steve Bannon join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Rick Rieder join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Phil McGraw join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Nicki Minaj join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Marc Rowan join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Judy Shelton join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.1% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Elon Musk join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Eric Adams join the Trump administration?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Who will join the Trump administration before July?

Before Jul 1, 2026 If X joins the Presidential Administration before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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KALSHI

Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.0¢No 78.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration?

If Glenn Youngkin joins the Presidential Administration before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this Contract, Glenn Youngkin "joins" the Presidential Administration if ANY of the following occurs after Issuance and is publicly announced before Jul 1

KALSHI

Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.3¢No 88.8¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration?

If Ron DeSantis joins the Presidential Administration before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this Contract, Ron DeSantis "joins" the Presidential Administration if ANY of the following occurs after Issuance and is publicly announced before Jul 1, 20

KALSHI

Will Marc Rowan join the Trump administration?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Marc Rowan join the Trump administration?

If Marc Rowan joins the Presidential Administration before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this Contract, Marc Rowan "joins" the Presidential Administration if ANY of the following occurs after Issuance and is publicly announced before Jul 1, 2026:

KALSHI

Will Phil McGraw join the Trump administration?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Phil McGraw join the Trump administration?

If Phil McGraw joins the Presidential Administration before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this Contract, Phil McGraw "joins" the Presidential Administration if ANY of the following occurs after Issuance and is publicly announced before Jul 1, 2026

KALSHI

Will Rick Rieder join the Trump administration?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Rick Rieder join the Trump administration?

If Rick Rieder joins the Presidential Administration before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this Contract, Rick Rieder "joins" the Presidential Administration if ANY of the following occurs after Issuance and is publicly announced before Jul 1, 2026

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Who will join the Trump administration before July?

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Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

Who will join the Trump administration before July?

Markets (11)

Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration?

Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration?

Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration?

Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration?

Will Marc Rowan join the Trump administration?

Will Marc Rowan join the Trump administration?

Will Phil McGraw join the Trump administration?

Will Phil McGraw join the Trump administration?

Will Rick Rieder join the Trump administration?

Will Rick Rieder join the Trump administration?

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Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will join the Trump administration before July?

Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration?

Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration?

Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration?

Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration?

Will Marc Rowan join the Trump administration?

Will Marc Rowan join the Trump administration?

Will Phil McGraw join the Trump administration?

Will Phil McGraw join the Trump administration?

Will Rick Rieder join the Trump administration?

Will Rick Rieder join the Trump administration?

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