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Events
GroupKALSHI

Who will leave the Trump administration before 2028?

Who will leave the Trump administration before 2028?
Vol

K 350.44 contracts

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Events

1

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Markets

34

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 84%.

Kalshi

  1. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.84%
  2. Pete Hegseth80.5%
  3. Kash Patel72%
  4. Marco Rubio67%
  5. Howard Lutnick62%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 350.44 contracts

Reported volume · provider units

34

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2028 If X leaves, or announces they will leave, the Trump administration after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves when the departure is publicly announced by the person, the President, the White House or their agency, regardless of the effective date. Only announcements after Issuance count, and unconfirmed reports from unnamed officials do not. Leaving the Trump administration means no longer holding any executive branch position; the Federal Reserve and federal courts are not part of it. For military officers, retirement or removal from their post counts, but reassignment does not. Leaving one role does not count if a move to, or keeping, another administration position is announced at the same time or earlier, such as Deputy Attorney General to Attorney General or Deputy Chief of Staff to Chief of Staff; a position announced afterward does not change the outcome. X departure taking effect at the end of the term on Jan 20, 2029 does not count. If the person dies in office, contracts on them may resolve to the last fair price as determined by the Exchange. This market will close and expire early if the specific individual leaves the role as defined in the payout criteria.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiPolitics
Who will leave the Trump administration before Jul 2027?

Who will leave the Trump administration before Jul 2027?

K 1.7K contracts
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before Jul 1, 2027?Yes 75%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before Jul 1, 2027?Yes 73%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before Jul 1, 2027?Yes 67%
+31 moreNext deadline Jul 8, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

PM $2.22M · K 6.62M contracts

Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Kalshi: Will Stephen Miller leaves Deputy Chief of Staff in before 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 6.2%Rules differK Yes 96.8%

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Kalshi: Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 41.5%Rules differK Yes 43.5%

Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Kalshi: Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 16%Rules differK Yes 21.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

11 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
How many Trump Cabinet members will leave before 2028?

How many Trump Cabinet members will leave before 2028?

K 668.01 contracts
Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 2 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 97%
Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 3 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 95.5%
Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 4 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 90%
+9 moreNext deadline Apr 1, 2028 UTC
KalshiPolitics
How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?

How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?

K 51.4K contracts
Will the US fall below 7.60 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028Yes 85%
Will the US fall below 7.50 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028Yes 68%
Will the US fall below 7.25 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028Yes 41.5%
+1 moreNext deadline May 17, 2029 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Will Trump try to leave the USMCA?

Will Trump try to leave the USMCA?

K 15.5K contracts
Will Trump try to leave the USMCA before 2029?Yes 14.5%
Will Trump try to leave the USMCA before 2028?Yes 9.5%
Will Trump try to leave the USMCA before 2027?Yes 5.8%
3 mktsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Will Trump issue a blanket pardon for administration staff?

Will Trump issue a blanket pardon for administration staff?

K 11.0K contracts
Will Trump issue a blanket pardon for administration staff before Jan 21, 2029?Yes 78.5%
Will Trump issue a blanket pardon for administration staff before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 41%
Will Trump issue a blanket pardon for administration staff before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 8.5%
3 mktsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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