About This Event

Before Sep 1, 2028 If the number of different candidates who win a 2028 Republican presidential primary or caucus is at least X by Aug 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. X candidate counts by winning the 2028 Republican presidential nominating contest of one of the 50 states or the District of Columbia, held through 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2028. X jurisdiction's contest is the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from it, the earlier one if two allocate the same number. For Michigan, Montana, New Mexico, Oregon and South Dakota, the contest is the state-run Republican presidential primary, whether or not it allocates or binds national convention delegates. The winner of a contest is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents. If two or more candidates tie for the most votes, each counts as a winner. X contest that reports no statewide vote count has no winner. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. Each candidate counts once however many contests they win, and stays counted if they later withdraw. Contests in U.S. territories and of Republicans Abroad do NOT count.