This contract is a Kalshi market asking who will win the 2028 South Carolina Republican presidential primary [1]. Each candidate has its own Yes or No contract. The event's rules say the market resolves to Yes if the named candidate wins the 2028 South Carolina Republican presidential nominating contest [1]. The contract does not resolve on just any South Carolina vote. It resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from South Carolina. If two contests allocate the same number of delegates, the earlier one is used [1]. The winner is the candidate with the most votes in the final round of counting [1]. The rules also say that "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates [1]. The rules include an accelerated determination provision. A market can be settled early after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner, but only a projection of the final-round winner counts toward that early settlement [1]. The provider's event status is listed as active [1]. The market data shows an end date of November 7, 2028 at 15:00 UTC for each contract [1]. That date appears in the contract rules and market data. It is not an announced date for a primary election. If the contest is not held before November 7, 2028, or if it reports no statewide vote count, every market in the event resolves to No [1]. This fallback means that a candidate's Yes price depends on both the outcome of the contest and the timing and reporting conditions in the rules. The saved snapshot includes five candidate contracts from this provider event: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Tucker Carlson and Thomas Massie [1]. The snapshot shows Vance's Yes price at 0.365 and Rubio's at 0.127 [1]. These are observed prices at the time of the saved snapshot, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The five contracts are all of the markets saved for this event, but the saved data does not establish that the provider lists every possible candidate.

Historical Context

Earlier South Carolina Republican presidential primaries are documented on Wikipedia. The 2008 primary was held on January 19 with 24 delegates at stake. The Republican National Committee took half of the state's 47 delegates away because the state committee had moved the primary before February 5. It was held on the same day as the Nevada Republican caucuses [2]. The 2012 South Carolina Republican presidential primary took place on January 21, 2012 [3]. These entries are historical background only. They do not describe the 2028 contest or any current event.

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