Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
PM $1.96M
1
1
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
PM $1.96M
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 7.6%.
Polymarket
- December 317.6%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $1.96M
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T00:00:06.267Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract asks whether Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will cease to be leader of Saudi Arabia [1]. The rules say it resolves "Yes" if he "ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET)" [1]. Otherwise it resolves "No" [1].
The rules also specify several triggers. An announced resignation or removal before the end date resolves the market to "Yes," even if the change takes effect later [1]. Detention, effective removal, or being "permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties" of the position within the market's timeframe also qualifies for "Yes" [1]. The stated resolution source is "official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia," although "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].
The wording differs in a few places. The market title refers to ceasing to be "the de facto leader," while the rules refer to ceasing to be "leader of Saudi Arabia" [1]. The rules also say the deadline is set "(ET)," but the listed end time is 04:59 UTC on January 1, 2027 [1]. Readers should use the listed end time and the resolution rules, not the title alone.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 00:00:06 UTC on October 20, 2026, and the record was retrieved at 02:40:28 UTC that day [1]. These are historical observation times, not live prices. The provider reported the market as "active" [1].
The observed prices were 0.0655 for "Yes" and 0.9345 for "No" [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. This sample includes one market from one platform, and the coverage record shows no omitted markets for this event [1]. It does not include volume or any count of traders, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many people hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the price is where it is, and this analysis does not offer a reason. It also does not include any news about Saudi leadership, any announced events, or any resolution. The contract had not resolved in the supplied record.
References
- Polymarket: Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T00:00:06.267Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This market is a yes or no contract on whether Mohammed bin Salman will stop being leader of Saudi Arabia during a set period. The provider's title asks whether he will be "out as leader of Saudi Arabia," while the market question refers to him ceasing to be the "de facto leader" of the country by December 31, 2026 [1]. The rules describe him as Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia [1]. Background sources describe him as the de facto ruler of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, formally serving as Crown Prince and Prime Minister, and as the heir apparent to the Saudi throne and a son of King Salman [2]. The title's "de facto" wording and the rules' "leader" wording are both relevant to how a resolution would be read, so the rules text is the controlling reference for the contract. The contract resolves to "Yes" if he ceases to hold that leadership role for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, which the provider states in Eastern Time [1]. The rules state that an announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date resolves the market to "Yes" immediately, regardless of when the announced change takes effect [1]. A "Yes" outcome also applies if he is detained, effectively removed from the position, or otherwise permanently prevented from carrying out its duties during the market's timeframe [1]. If none of these occur, the market resolves to "No" [1]. The provider names official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia as the resolution source, and says a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. Because of that second clause, the resolution could depend on how reporting is judged as well as on formal announcements. The listed end time for the provider event is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z [1]. Expressed in Eastern Time, that corresponds to the end of December 31, 2026, which matches the question wording. This end time is the contract's closing point, not a date on which any announcement is expected.
Historical Context
Background sources identify Mohammed bin Salman as a son of King Salman and a grandson of the nation's founder, Ibn Saud [2]. King Salman is described as having reigned since 2015 and as the son of King Abdulaziz, the founder of Saudi Arabia [3]. These sources supply family and succession context only. They do not describe events after the retrieval dates, and they do not establish whether any change in leadership has occurred.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the person described in the market's rules stops being leader of Saudi Arabia during the stated window [1]. Its rules are broad. A brief interruption counts, and a resignation or removal announcement counts even if the change would take effect later [1]. The detention and permanent incapacity clauses extend the contract beyond formal resignation [1]. Because the resolution source combines official statements with credible reporting, the rules define the question in terms of both formal announcements and how the outcome is established [1]. Traders reading the contract should therefore focus on the written rules rather than the headline title alone.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-20 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a resignation announcement resolve the market?
Yes. The rules state that an announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation or removal before the end date resolves the market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect [1].
Would a temporary absence from the role count?
The rules resolve to "Yes" if he ceases to be leader "for any period of time" between market creation and the specified date [1]. A short interruption would therefore fall within the wording, though the rules do not give further detail on how such a period would be assessed.
What sources would be used to decide the outcome?
The stated resolution source is official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
What other events would resolve the market to Yes?
Under the rules, detention, effective removal from the position, or a permanent prevention from fulfilling the duties of the position within the market's timeframe would qualify for a "Yes" resolution [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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