Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
PM $7.4K
1
25
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
PM $7.4K
1
25
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Pete Hegseth at 23.5%.
Polymarket
- Pete Hegseth23.5%
- Marco Rubio15.5%
- Howard Lutnick14.5%
- Scott Bessent12.9%
- Kelly Loeffler12%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $7.4K
Reported volume · provider units
25
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2029". An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President's Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed assumes a listed Cabinet position, they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a Cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event resolves to Yes for the first member of Donald Trump's Cabinet to leave or announce they will leave after May 22, 2026, whether by quitting, being fired, or being impeached [1]. Its Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance plus several listed posts, and it excludes acting roles and departures caused by death. A leave of absence does not count as leaving the position [1].
The Polymarket event resolves to the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to "None before 2027" [2]. Its Cabinet includes the Vice President but excludes the OSTP director, and nominees do not count as having left [2].
The wording differs in ways that affect comparison. Kalshi's rules are tied to the May 22, 2026 start date, and its listed end time was not supplied. Polymarket lists an end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1][2]. The individual Kalshi markets list an end date of 2029-01-20T15:00:00.000Z [1]. These are contract fields, not scheduled events.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z. The sources were retrieved later that day, at 15:37 UTC. The prices below describe that earlier observation and are not current quotes.
In the Kalshi sample, Yes prices were 0.385 for Pete Hegseth, 0.195 for Susie Wiles, 0.145 for Howard Lutnick, and 0.09 for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [1]. In the Polymarket sample, Yes prices were 0.416 for no one leaving before 2027, 0.2405 for Susie Wiles, and 0.156 for Pete Hegseth [2].
Each event is a partial sample. Twelve of 25 Kalshi markets and 12 of 21 Polymarket markets were included, ranked by Yes price within each event. The evidence does not show the prices of omitted markets, so the sample cannot tell you where they sit. The two events also ask different questions, so their prices should not be averaged, merged, or treated as an arbitrage signal. Prices are snapshots rather than executable quotes or verified probabilities, and no volume or liquidity data was supplied.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price moved, and it contains no recent news about Cabinet changes. It does not show whether any official has announced a departure, and no outcome has been resolved. The Kalshi listed end time is not supplied, and both samples are partial. Readers should check each contract's current rules and live prices from the provider before drawing conclusions.
References
- Kalshi: Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?. Provider data observed 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z.
- Polymarket: Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?. Provider data observed 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 31, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks which member of Donald Trump's Cabinet will be the next to leave or be removed from office. Two providers list versions of the question. Kalshi's event is titled "Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?" [1], and Polymarket's is titled "Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?" [2]. The contracts sit on the second Trump administration, which began when he was inaugurated as the 47th president on January 20, 2025 [3][4]. The two providers use different rules, so the same departure may not resolve both contracts the same way. Kalshi resolves Yes to the first Cabinet member to leave or announce they will leave after May 22, 2026, whether by quitting, being fired, or being impeached [1]. Polymarket resolves to the next individual announced to leave the Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration [2]. Polymarket adds that if no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "None before 2027" [2]. The Cabinet is defined differently too. Kalshi counts the heads of 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of issuance, plus several named officials including the EPA Administrator, the Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence, and the OMB Director [1]. Polymarket includes the Vice President and the heads of the 15 executive departments, and it specifically excludes the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy because that role is not treated as Cabinet-level under the current administration [2]. Both providers exclude acting officials [1][2].
Historical Context
Trump served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021, lost re-election to Joe Biden in 2020, and won the 2024 election against Kamala Harris, beginning his current term on January 20, 2025 [4]. His second presidency is the second time a former U.S. president has returned to office [4]. Republicans hold simple majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate, which gives the administration a federal government trifecta [4]. The president nominates Cabinet members to the Senate for confirmation [3]. The sources supplied do not describe any specific departures from the Cabinet, so the contracts' outcomes cannot be placed in a historical sequence from this evidence.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the timing of the next Cabinet departure under each provider's rules. Because the definitions of Cabinet membership, announcement timing, and the end date differ between Kalshi [1] and Polymarket [2], a price on one platform describes a different question than a price on the other. Prices shown on these markets are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and trading volume does not indicate liquidity or the number of participants. A Kalshi contract on a named official is a separate question from the same person's Polymarket contract, so price differences between them do not by themselves indicate an opportunity.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-31 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does announcing a departure count, or only the actual exit?
Both providers count an announcement. Kalshi treats an announcement of intent to leave and the departure itself as one occurrence, dated at the earlier of the two [1]. Polymarket resolves to Yes on an announced resignation or removal before its end date, regardless of when it takes effect [2].
Does a leave of absence count as leaving the Cabinet?
No. Kalshi states that a leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position [1].
Does a nomination to a Cabinet post count?
Polymarket states that candidates who have merely been nominated for a Cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if the nomination is rejected or withdrawn [2].
Do deaths or acting officials count?
Kalshi states that leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by its payout criterion [1]. Both providers exclude acting officials from the Cabinet definition [1][2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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