Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
K 5.2K contracts
1
25
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
K 5.2K contracts
1
25
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Pete Hegseth at 33.5%.
Kalshi
- Pete Hegseth33.5%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.12.5%
- Marco Rubio11%
- Scott Bessent8.5%
- Brooke Rollins6.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 5.2K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
25
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
During Trump's term If X is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave, such as by quitting, being fired, or being removed from office, after Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. A person’s announcement of their intent to leave and their departure count as one occurrence, at the earlier of the two. X leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position. Susie Wiles' departure as Chief of Staff, announced on Nov 6, 2026, occurred before Issuance and does not count. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well as the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs for any person.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T18:00:06.063Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event resolves to Yes for the first Cabinet member to leave or announce they will leave after May 22, 2026 [1]. Its Cabinet covers the heads of 15 agencies as of Issuance, plus named posts, and excludes acting roles. Leaving through death is not covered [1].
The Polymarket event resolves based on "the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet." If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to "None before 2027" [2]. Its Cabinet includes the Vice President and excludes the OSTP director, which it describes as "not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration" [2]. Because the definitions differ, the two events do not ask identical questions.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-10-29T18:00:06Z and retrieved at 18:53:34Z UTC. They describe that observation, not live conditions. On Kalshi's sampled individual contracts, Yes prices range from 0.32 for Pete Hegseth to 0.015 for several names. On Polymarket's sample, the Yes price for "no one leaves before 2027" is 0.342, and Susie Wiles is at 0.2625.
These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Each platform's sample is partial: Kalshi included 12 of 25 markets and Polymarket included 12 of 21. Omitted names should not be read as lower-priced, and rankings should not be combined across the two events.
Listed end times also differ. Kalshi's individual markets show an end date of 2029-01-20T15:00:00Z, while its event excerpt says the listed end time was not supplied. Polymarket's markets show 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, which matches the December 31, 2026 deadline in its rules [2]. These are contract data, not announced events.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not explain why prices are where they are. It also does not show trader counts or liquidity. Volume is not a measure of either, and these data do not include volume.
Differences in wording, Cabinet definitions, and close times mean that a price gap between contracts is not an arbitrage opportunity. Whether anyone will leave the Cabinet is not established by this evidence. Resolution on Polymarket also depends on official information and a consensus of credible reporting, which adds interpretive room [2].
References
- Kalshi: Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T18:00:06.063Z.
- Polymarket: Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T18:00:06.063Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract family asks which member of President Donald Trump's Cabinet will be the next to leave or announce a departure. The two providers in this sample, Kalshi and Polymarket, use related but different rules, so the wording of each contract matters for how it resolves. The Kalshi event resolves to Yes for the first Cabinet member who leaves or announces they will leave after May 22, 2026, whether by quitting, being fired, or being impeached [1]. If two people announce departures at the same time, the one who leaves first resolves Yes. If several leave at the same time, the alphabetically first last name resolves Yes [1]. The Kalshi rules say a leave of absence does not count as leaving the position, acting roles are excluded, and departures caused by death are not covered [1]. Its Cabinet definition includes the heads of 15 government agencies as of issuance, plus several other posts such as the EPA Administrator, the White House Chief of Staff, and the Director of National Intelligence [1]. The Kalshi excerpt does not supply a listed end time for the event [1]. The Polymarket event resolves based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration [2]. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to "None before 2027" [2]. Its Cabinet definition explicitly includes the Vice President, and it excludes the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, which it says is not considered Cabinet-level under the current administration [2]. Polymarket also states that a person who is nominated for a Cabinet post has not left, even if the nomination is later rejected or withdrawn [2]. Its listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [2]. The market list in this snapshot includes only a subset of each provider event. For Kalshi, 12 of 25 markets are included, and for Polymarket, 12 of 21 are included [1][2]. Markets were selected by Yes price within each event, so markets that are not shown should not be read as having lower prices, and rankings should not be compared across the two events.
Historical Context
Donald Trump began his second presidency upon his inauguration as the 47th president on January 20, 2025 [4]. He previously served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021 [4]. The president has legal authority to nominate Cabinet members to the United States Senate for confirmation under the Appointments Clause of the Constitution [3]. Background pages like these describe the structure of the administration and its history, but they do not establish who currently holds any Cabinet post or whether any departure has been announced.
Why It Matters
These contracts measure the timing and identity of the next Cabinet departure, not the total number of departures. Each provider's wording determines what counts. Kalshi counts announcements of intent to leave as well as completed exits, and it treats acting roles and deaths differently from resignations or firings [1]. Polymarket counts an announcement of resignation or removal as a Yes resolution even if the change takes effect later [2]. The inclusion rules also differ: Polymarket counts the Vice President as Cabinet, while Kalshi includes the Administrator of the SBA and the Director of OSTP [1][2]. Because the definitions differ, the two events are not directly interchangeable, and a price gap between them may reflect different rules rather than a mispricing. The prices shown are snapshots of quoted outcome prices at the time of observation. They are not executable trades and not verified probabilities of departure. Trading volume is not a measure of liquidity or the number of participants.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a leave of absence count as leaving the Cabinet?
No. The Kalshi rules state that a leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position [1].
Does a nomination to another Cabinet post count as leaving?
Under the Polymarket rules, no. Candidates who have merely been nominated for a Cabinet position are not considered to have left, even if the nomination is rejected or withdrawn [2].
Are departures caused by death included?
Under the Kalshi rules, leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the payout criterion [1].
What happens if nobody leaves before the deadline on Polymarket?
If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "None before 2027" [2].
Why might the two events list different people or prices?
The events use different Cabinet definitions and end rules. Polymarket includes the Vice President and excludes the OSTP Director, while Kalshi includes the OSTP Director and several other posts [1][2]. Each event also includes only a partial sample of its markets, so the two lists should not be compared as a single ranking.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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