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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

Name: China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
End: 2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.95K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

Vol

$5.95K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $5.95K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.95K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?	Poly	47%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?	Poly	41%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	Poly	9%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%?	Poly	8%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?	Poly	5%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 4.0%?	Poly	2%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.8%?	Poly	0%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.8% and 6.1%?	Poly	0%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 6.1%?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

47%

Top Probability

$5.95K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is sc

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jul 16, 2026 (6 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is sc

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If the r"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.90)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $956
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $684
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $844
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.8% and 6.1%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $514
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 4.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $318
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $768
  DATA: [Yes: 9.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $729
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.8%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $584
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 6.1%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $551
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy