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Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

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Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

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Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%?

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Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%?	Kalshi	21%
Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?	Kalshi	16%
Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 6% and 9%?	Kalshi	14%
Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 9% and 12%?	Kalshi	14%
Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?	Kalshi	11%
Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be above 15%?	Kalshi	11%
Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%?	Kalshi	11%
Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 12% and 15%?	Kalshi	5%
Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 9% and 12%?	Kalshi	4%
Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 6% and 9%?	Kalshi	3%
Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 12% and 15%?	Kalshi	2%
Will the margin of victory for Mallory McMorrow in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be above 0%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be above 15%?	Kalshi	1%

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About This Event

On Aug 4, 2026 If the margin of victory X 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within Y to Z inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received X minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Y if Y wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Y loses. Fo

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Aug 4, 2026

If the margin of victory X 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within Y to Z inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received X minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Y if Y wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Y loses. Fo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Mallory McMorrow in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 0% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the mar"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Mallory McMorrow in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be above 0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 6% and 9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be above 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 12% and 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 9% and 12%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 6% and 9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be above 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 12% and 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 9% and 12%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
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- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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KALSHIElections

Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%?

If the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin t

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?

If the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 6% and 9%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 6% and 9%?

If the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 6% to 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 9% and 12%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 9% and 12%?

If the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 9% to 12%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?

If the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin t

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Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%?

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Events (1)

Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Markets (13)

Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?

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Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6%?

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