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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president by...?

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president by...?
Vol

PM $35.6K

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Events

1

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Markets

2

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is March 31, 2027 at 61.5%.

Polymarket

  1. March 31, 202761.5%
  2. December 31, 202628.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $35.6K

Reported volume · provider units

2

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christine Lagarde ceases to be the President of the European Central Bank for any period of time between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lagarde's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiPolitics
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

PM $159.97M · K 1.48M contracts

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Kalshi: Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

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PM Yes 11.5%Rules differK Yes 96.5%

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Kalshi: Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 93.3%Rules differK Yes 96.5%

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Kalshi: Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Related contracts

PM Yes 93.3%Rules differK Yes 38.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

247 saved comparisonsNext deadline Apr 17, 2027 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Putin out as President of Russia by...?

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PM $30.79M
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Yes 8.5%
Putin out as President of Russia by March 31, 2027?Yes 7%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes 1.9%
3 mktsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Keiko Fujimori out as President of Peru?

Keiko Fujimori out as President of Peru?

K 2.2K contracts
Will Keiko Fujimori be out as President of Peru before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 15%
Will Keiko Fujimori be out as President of Peru before Jul 1, 2027?Yes 7%
Will Keiko Fujimori be out as President of Peru before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 4.5%
3 mktsNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Assimi Goïta out as President of Mali by...?

Assimi Goïta out as President of Mali by...?

PM $63.2K
Will Assimi Goïta be out as President of Mali by June 30, 2027?Yes 30%
Will Assimi Goïta be out as President of Mali by December 31, 2026?Yes 4.1%
2 mktsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?

Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?

PM $2.74M · K 14.0K contracts

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31?

Kalshi: Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before December 1, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 11.5%Rules differK Yes 10.5%

Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by December 31?

Kalshi: Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before December 1, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 5.8%Rules differK Yes 10.5%

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Kalshi: Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before December 1, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 7.5%Rules differK Yes 10.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiSports
Gianni Infantino out as President of FIFA in 2026

Gianni Infantino out as President of FIFA in 2026

PM $556.2K · K 104.6K contracts

Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?

Kalshi: Will Gianni Infantino leave from being President of FIFA in 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 2.7%Rules differK Yes 4.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

1 saved comparisonNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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