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Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

How many people will Trump pardon in Jul 2026?

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How many people will Trump pardon in Jul 2026?

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4 markets tracked

Will between 10 and 24 people be pardoned in July 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will between 10 and 24 people be pardoned in July 2026?	Kalshi	49%
Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in July 2026?	Kalshi	32%
Will between 100 and 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?	Kalshi	11%
Will above 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

49%

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$0.00

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About This Event

July 2026 If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between X and Y persons in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, October 8, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many people will Trump pardon in Jul 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** July 2026

If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between X and Y persons in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 25 and 99 persons in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will between 100 and 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will between 10 and 24 people be pardoned in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will above 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

How many people will Trump pardon in Jul 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets4

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KALSHI

Will between 10 and 24 people be pardoned in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 48.5¢No 51.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will between 10 and 24 people be pardoned in July 2026?

If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 10 and 24 persons in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 32.5¢No 67.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in July 2026?

If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 25 and 99 persons in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will between 100 and 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will between 100 and 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?

If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 100 and 249 persons in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will above 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will above 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?

If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to above 249 persons in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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25¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/3rbbXc" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How many people will Trump pardon in Jul 2026?"></iframe>

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How many people will Trump pardon in Jul 2026?

How many people will Trump pardon in Jul 2026?

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Will between 10 and 24 people be pardoned in July 2026?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

How many people will Trump pardon in Jul 2026?

Markets (4)

Will between 10 and 24 people be pardoned in July 2026?

Will between 10 and 24 people be pardoned in July 2026?

Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in July 2026?

Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in July 2026?

Will between 100 and 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?

Will between 100 and 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?

Will above 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?

Will above 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will between 10 and 24 people be pardoned in July 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many people will Trump pardon in Jul 2026?

Will between 10 and 24 people be pardoned in July 2026?

Will between 10 and 24 people be pardoned in July 2026?

Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in July 2026?

Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in July 2026?

Will between 100 and 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?

Will between 100 and 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?

Will above 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?

Will above 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?

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