Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will Arizona semiconductor employment increase YoY in 2026?

Total Volume

$22.54K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Arizona semiconductor employment increase YoY in 2026?

Vol

$22.54K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $22.54K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $22.54K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Arizona’s annual average employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for 2026 be above 24,431 employees?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Arizona’s annual average employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for 2026 be above 24,431 employees?	Kalshi	14%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

14%

Top Probability

$22.54K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 If the Arizona’s annual average employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for 2026 is above 24,431 employees, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution uses annual average employment in Arizona for NAICS 3344 - Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing, as reported by BLS QCEW. The 24,431-employee baseline is fixed to the published 2025 value at market launch; later revisions do not change the strike. QCEW publishes detailed industries for

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Arizona semiconductor employment increase YoY in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If the Arizona’s annual average employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for 2026 is above 24,431 employees, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution uses annual average employment in Arizona for NAICS 3344 - Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing, as reported by BLS QCEW. The 24,431-employee baseline is fixed to the published 2025 value at market launch; later revisions do not change the strike.

QCEW publishes detailed industries for

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Arizona’s annual average employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for 2026 is above 24,431 employees, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution uses annual average employment in Arizona for NAICS 3344 - Semiconductor and Other Electronic Comp"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $22.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Arizona’s annual average employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for 2026 be above 24,431 employees?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 11, 2027): Vol $22.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics