Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...?
PM $354.8K
1
1
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...?
PM $354.8K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 8.5%.
Polymarket
- December 318.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $354.8K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rubén Rocha Moya is extradited to the United States between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Extradited to the United States” means Rocha Moya is physically transferred to U.S. government custody pursuant to an extradition process or equivalent custody transfer process. If Rocha Moya otherwise enters U.S. territory and is subsequently arrested or taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date, this will also qualify. An announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, ordered, or agreed to will not qualify unless Rocha Moya is physically transferred to, arrested by, or otherwise taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Rubén Rocha Moya, the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa, the United States government, and relevant courts; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved record is a single Polymarket contract titled "Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?" [1]. The rule text says the market "will resolve to 'Yes' if Rubén Rocha Moya is extradited to the United States between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'" [1]. The excerpt defines "Extradited to the United States" as physical transfer to U.S. government custody, and it adds that "An announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, ordered, or agreed to will not qualify unless Rocha Moya is physically transferred to, arrested by, or otherwise taken into U.S. government custody by the market's end date" [1].
The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This does not match the May 31, 2026 date in the rule text, and the evidence does not explain the difference. Readers should treat the two dates as unreconciled and check the provider's full resolution terms before relying on either one.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-16T00:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-16T01:35:06Z [1]. These are snapshot times, not a live feed. The saved prices are 0.135 for "Yes" and 0.865 for "No" [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the record does not include volume or liquidity data.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. Coverage reports 1 total market, 1 included, and no partial sample [1]. Because the saved event contains only this contract, there is no other outcome in the record to compare against. The two prices are complementary within this one contract, but no cross-platform or cross-contract comparison is supported here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are where they are, how many traders hold each view, or what has happened since the snapshot. It also does not establish whether the extradition has occurred or will occur. The stated resolution sources include official information from Rubén Rocha Moya, the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa, the United States government, and relevant courts, and "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. Readers should check the provider page for the current status and confirm which end date governs.
References
- Polymarket: Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a single prediction market on whether Rubén Rocha Moya, identified in the contract as the Sinaloa governor, will be extradited to the United States. The market is listed on Polymarket [1]. Under its written rules, the Yes outcome applies if Rocha Moya is physically transferred to U.S. government custody under an extradition process or an equivalent custody transfer process [1]. The rules also say that if he otherwise enters U.S. territory and is later arrested or taken into U.S. government custody by the market's end date, this would also qualify [1]. The rules are specific about what does not count. An announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, ordered, or agreed to does not qualify unless Rocha Moya is physically transferred to, arrested by, or otherwise taken into U.S. government custody by the end date [1]. A contract of this kind therefore depends on a custody event, not on procedural steps that may come before it. The rules name several resolution sources: official information from Rocha Moya, the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa, the United States government, and relevant courts. They also state that a consensus of credible reporting may be used [1]. The market is a question about a future custody event, and its wording does not describe any event as having already happened. There is a date discrepancy in the supplied material that readers should note. The rule text states that the market resolves based on extradition between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [1]. The market title and listed end time instead point to December 31, with a listed end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z [1]. A date in contract rules is not an announced event date, and this entry does not determine which date governs. Readers should check the current contract text on the provider page before relying on any timing.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific custody event occurs within a stated window. Under the written rules, that event is Rocha Moya being physically transferred to U.S. government custody or otherwise taken into custody after entering U.S. territory [1]. Because the contract excludes requests, approvals, and orders that have not yet produced a transfer, its prices reflect expectations about that custody event rather than about the legal process as a whole [1]. The market is one contract within one provider event. The saved sample includes all markets for this event, which is a single market, so there are no other outcomes in this sample to compare against [1]. This does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome. Prices shown for this contract are snapshots of the provider's listing at the time of observation, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and trading volume is not a measure of liquidity or the number of participants. The Wikipedia page on 2026 in Mexico describes itself as a list of events in Mexico during 2026, with incumbents and cultural activities [3]. That page is background only and does not describe this extradition question, so it does not confirm any current development in the matter.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as a Yes resolution for this market?
A Yes outcome requires that Rocha Moya is physically transferred to U.S. government custody under an extradition process or equivalent custody transfer process. If he enters U.S. territory and is later arrested or taken into U.S. government custody by the end date, that also qualifies [1].
Does an extradition request or approval resolve the market?
No, not by itself. The rules state that an announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, ordered, or agreed to will not qualify unless Rocha Moya is physically transferred to, arrested by, or otherwise taken into U.S. government custody by the end date [1].
Which end date applies to this contract?
The rule text refers to May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, while the market title and listed end time refer to December 31 and 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z [1]. The supplied material does not settle this difference, so the current provider contract should be checked directly.
Who can resolve the market?
The rules name official information from Rocha Moya, the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa, the United States government, and relevant courts as the resolution source. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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