Sinaloa Governor Election Winner
PM $54.3K
1
21
Sinaloa Governor Election Winner
PM $54.3K
1
21
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Imelda Castro Castro at 45%.
Polymarket
- Imelda Castro Castro45%
- Mario Zamora Gastélum19.1%
- Paloma Sánchez Ramos10%
- María Teresa Guerra Ochoa1.7%
- Gerardo Octavio Vargas Landeros0.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $54.3K
Reported volume · provider units
21
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket event asks which candidate wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial election. The source states that "gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027" [1]. Each candidate has a separate Yes/No contract. The rules say the market "will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election," and that "Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify" [1]. If results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-06-07T03:59:00.000Z [1]. This is a contract close time, not an announced date for results.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T20:23:40.853Z [1]. They describe that moment only. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The highest Yes price in the included sample belongs to Imelda Castro Castro at 0.805, against 0.195 for No [1]. Mario Zamora Gastélum is at 0.1295 Yes, and María Teresa Guerra Ochoa is at 0.0285 Yes [1]. The other nine included candidates are each listed at 0.005 or 0.0045 Yes [1].
The sample is partial. Twelve of 21 markets in this event were included [1]. Markets were ranked by Yes price, so the nine omitted markets are not shown. Do not assume they are priced lower or are unlikely, and do not treat these twelve as the full field. The evidence also does not include volume or trader counts, so it cannot speak to liquidity or how many people hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are at these levels, and it contains no news about the race. The rules say resolution will follow "a consensus of credible reporting," and if that is ambiguous, "official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico" [1]. The evidence does not establish whether results will be known before the listed close. Only one platform is supplied, so no cross-platform comparison is made.
References
- Polymarket: Sinaloa Governor Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
The Polymarket event "Sinaloa Governor Election Winner" concerns the 2027 gubernatorial election in Sinaloa, a Mexican state on the Pacific coast. Its contract rules state that the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections are scheduled for June 6, 2027 [1][2]. The same election is part of the 2027 Mexican local elections, which are scheduled for the same day as the 2027 federal elections and will elect 17 governors [2]. The market resolves according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify [1]. The rules also set a fallback: if the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Resolution is based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the rules say the market will resolve solely on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico [1]. The provider record lists an end time of 2027-06-07T03:59:00.000Z and an active status [1]. That end time is a listed contract field. It is not a reported election result, and the contract does not say results have been announced. The city of Mazatlán is the municipal seat of the Mazatlán Municipality in Sinaloa, located on the Pacific coast [3]. The sources do not link Mazatlán to the contract's resolution.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which listed candidate wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial election, with an "Other" outcome if results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1]. Its resolution relies on credible reporting and, where results are ambiguous, on official results from Sinaloa and Mexican government electoral bodies [1]. Because the election is scheduled for June 6, 2027, the contract's resolution depends on events that have not yet occurred as of the source retrieval date [1][2].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial election scheduled?
The election is scheduled to be held on June 6, 2027 [1][2]. It is concurrent with the 2027 federal elections [2].
Would an interim or caretaker governor count as a winner?
No. The contract states that any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify [1].
What happens if the results are not known by the deadline?
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other" [1].
Which sources will decide the outcome if reporting is ambiguous?
If there is ambiguity, the market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico [1].
Does a contract price show the chance that a candidate will win?
The prices are snapshots from the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the market sample shown is partial, so it should not be read as the full candidate field [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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