How many Trump vetoes by December 31, 2027?
PM $11.3K
1
7
How many Trump vetoes by December 31, 2027?
PM $11.3K
1
7
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 15-19 at 27%.
Polymarket
- 15-1927%
- 20-2419.5%
- 0-416.5%
- 5-915.5%
- 30+13%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $11.3K
Reported volume · provider units
7
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the exact number of bills and joint resolutions Donald Trump vetoes between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A veto means the President returns a bill or joint resolution to Congress without signature, with objections, as provided in Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution, or a pocket veto. A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred on the date the bill or joint resolution is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto does not take effect until after December 31, 2027. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known. Veto threats, Statements of Administration Policy, and signing statements will not qualify. Each vetoed bill or joint resolution counts as one veto, whether or not Congress later overrides it. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government, including Congress.gov and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-04T21:00:06.248Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks how many vetoes Donald Trump issues between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1]. Each vetoed bill or joint resolution counts as one veto, whether or not Congress later overrides it [1]. The rules define a veto as a return "without signature, with objections," along with pocket vetoes, and state that a pocket veto is dated to the day the bill is presented to the President [1]. The rules also exclude "Veto threats, Statements of Administration Policy, and signing statements" [1]. The listed end time is 2028-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, which matches the 11:59 PM ET cutoff in the rules [1]. Under the rules, an ambiguous pocket veto keeps the market open until its status is known [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at 2026-11-04T21:00:06.248Z and retrieved at 2026-11-05T01:54:16.600Z [1]. These prices describe that observation only and are not current quotes or verified probabilities.
The event contains seven bins, and the sample is complete for this saved event (seven of seven markets included) [1]. The Yes prices are 0.29 for 0-4 vetoes, 0.28 for 10-14, 0.25 for 5-9, 0.21 for 15-19, 0.20 for 25-29, 0.16 for 20-24, and 0.12 for 30 or more [1]. The 0-4 bin has the highest Yes price in the snapshot, and the 30-plus bin has the lowest. The sum of the Yes prices is about 1.51, so the bins should not be read as a single probability distribution without further checking. Each bin is a separate contract with its own price.
Volume was not supplied, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many traders hold each position.
What remains uncertain
The sample warning states that the listed markets do not establish that the provider covers every possible outcome [1]. Prices for bins not shown here cannot be inferred. The rules allow resolution from Congress.gov and the White House, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The snapshot does not explain why any price changed. Differences in prices between bins, or between this event and any other platform, should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity without matching the rules, timing, and resolution sources.
References
- Polymarket: How many Trump vetoes by December 31, 2027?. Provider data observed 2026-11-04T21:00:06.248Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 5, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This Polymarket event asks how many vetoes Donald Trump will issue between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1]. Under the contract rules, a veto occurs when the President returns a bill or joint resolution to Congress without signature, with objections, as provided in Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution, or through a pocket veto [1]. Each vetoed bill or joint resolution counts as one veto, whether or not Congress later overrides it [1]. Veto threats, Statements of Administration Policy, and signing statements do not qualify [1]. The rules include a specific timing rule for pocket vetoes. A pocket veto is counted on the date the bill or joint resolution is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto does not take effect until after December 31, 2027 [1]. If the timing or effect of a pocket veto is ambiguous, the market stays open until its status is known [1]. The provider data lists an end time of 2028-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is the listed closing time for the contract. It is not an announced event, and the contract rules describe the counting window in terms of December 31, 2027 [1]. The primary resolution sources are official U.S. government information, including Congress.gov and the White House, although a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The event is divided into seven range markets, running from 0 to 4 vetoes up to 30 or more [1]. Each range market has its own Yes and No prices. These prices are snapshots of trading activity at the observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and a difference in price between two ranges does not by itself indicate a trading opportunity.
Historical Context
The retrieved Wikipedia article on the second presidency of Donald Trump states that his second tenure began upon his inauguration as the 47th president on January 20, 2025, after he won against Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in 2024 [3]. It also describes him as the second former U.S. president to return to office [3]. The same article states that Republicans hold simple majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate, which it describes as a federal government trifecta [3]. The supplied sources do not report a veto count for any past period, so this contract cannot be placed in a historical veto record from the evidence available.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single count: the number of bills and joint resolutions Trump vetoes within a defined window [1]. Because the rules define a veto by reference to Article I, Section 7 and pocket vetoes, the count depends on formal presidential action rather than public threats or policy statements [1]. The rules also say that override outcomes do not change the count, so a vetoed bill counts even if Congress later overrides it [1]. Traders and readers can use the official resolution sources named in the rules, Congress.gov and the White House, to follow how the count is determined [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-04 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a veto threat count toward this market?
No. The rules state that veto threats, Statements of Administration Policy, and signing statements will not qualify [1].
Does a veto count if Congress overrides it?
Yes, it still counts. The rules say each vetoed bill or joint resolution counts as one veto, whether or not Congress later overrides it [1].
How are pocket vetoes counted?
A pocket veto is counted on the date the bill or joint resolution is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto does not take effect until after December 31, 2027 [1]. If its timing or effect is ambiguous, the market remains open until its status is known [1].
What sources will decide the outcome?
The primary sources are official U.S. government information, including Congress.gov and the White House. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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