GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsCulture

Which guests will appear on the UpOnly podcast before 2027?

Name: Which guests will appear on the UpOnly podcast before 2027?
End: 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$58.29K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Which guests will appear on the UpOnly podcast before 2027?

Vol

$58.29K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $35.22K

Kalshi

markets · $23.07K

Price Spread

26.6%avg

max 46.3%

Arbitrage

of 8 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $58.29K

60%

40%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

24 markets tracked

Will Jeff Yan appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?

Arbitrage

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(8)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Jeff Yan appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?ARB	45%	10%	36%
Will Jesse Pollak appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?ARB	43%	7%	36%
Will Martin Shkreli appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?ARB	45%	5%	40%
Will GCR appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?ARB	47%	1%	46%
Will Ansem appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?ARB	32%	8%	24%
Will SBF appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?ARB	25%	3%	23%
Will Brian Armstrong appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?ARB	7%	9%	2%
Will Arthur Hayes appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?ARB	10%	5%	5%

Single-Platform Markets(16)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

49%

Top Probability

$58.29K

Volume

Markets

29.7%

Price Gap

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the of

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UpOnly podcast: Guests this year
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If X is on the UpOnly Podcast before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

“Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $58.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $506
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 115.11)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (21 mkts) vs Kalshi (11 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will SBF appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 22.9% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will Martin Shkreli appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $161
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $403
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 40.0% spread between platforms.

### 3. Will Jesse Pollak appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $588
  DATA: [Yes: 43.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 36.1% spread between platforms.

### 4. Will Jeff Yan appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 45.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $7.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 35.8% spread between platforms.

### 5. Will GCR appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $365
  DATA: [Yes: 46.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.2% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 46.3% spread between platforms.

### 6. Will Brian Armstrong appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.2% spread between platforms.

### 7. Will Arthur Hayes appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $936
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 5.2% spread between platforms.

### 8. Will Ansem appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 24.3% spread between platforms.

### 9. Will Barron Trump be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $861
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will James Wynn be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $374
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will DegenPing be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Gainzy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $141
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will ThreadGuy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $11.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.6% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Michael Saylor appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $182
  DATA: [Yes: 49.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.7% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will CZ appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $467
  DATA: [Yes: 25.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.1% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Vitalik Buterin appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $454
  DATA: [Yes: 5.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Su Zhu appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $175
  DATA: [Yes: 44.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.6% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Guy Young appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.2% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Anatoly Yakovenko appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $124
  DATA: [Yes: 46.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.4% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Thomas Lee appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $209
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Javier Milei appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Andrew Kang appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will thiccy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $166
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will light appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $47
  DATA: [Yes: 42.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIEntertainment

UpOnly podcast: Guests this year

Before 2027 If X is on the UpOnly Podcast before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Volume$23.07K

Markets11

POLYMARKETCulture