Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?
PM $39.5K
1
2
Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?
PM $39.5K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31, 2027 at 10.5%.
Polymarket
- December 31, 202710.5%
- December 31, 20262.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $39.5K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Riemann Hypothesis, or otherwise officially declares the Riemann Hypothesis solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that the Riemann Hypothesis has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Riemann Hypothesis has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Polymarket event asks whether the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) will declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved [1]. A "Yes" outcome requires that CMI award a Millennium Prize for the Riemann Hypothesis or otherwise officially declare it solved "on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date" [1]. The rules state that "A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community" [1]. They also say that a "consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred" [1].
The event contains two markets with different deadlines. One asks about a declaration by December 31, 2026, and the other asks about one by December 31, 2027 [1]. Their listed end times are 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z and 2028-01-01T04:59:00Z, respectively [1]. These timestamps fall just before midnight ET on the stated dates, so the 2027 contract covers a longer window than the 2026 contract.
Reading the snapshot
The saved market data was observed at 2026-10-19T06:00:06Z and retrieved at 08:46:12Z on the same day [1]. Both markets are listed as active. Within the sample, the quoted Yes prices were 0.025 for the 2026 deadline and 0.105 for the 2027 deadline. The corresponding No prices were 0.975 and 0.895 [1].
These are snapshot prices from one observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The supplied data does not include trade volume, order-book depth, or trader counts, so it cannot show how liquid either market is or how many participants hold a given view. The 2027 contract's higher Yes price is a difference in the quoted numbers only. The evidence does not explain why the prices differ, and the two contracts should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity because their prices differ.
What remains uncertain
The sample is complete for this saved event. Both markets are included, and the coverage record reports two of two markets with no partial sample [1]. The data still does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome. The selection note describes the saved provider event only, not the full real-world field [1].
The evidence contains no news about the status of the Riemann Hypothesis or any CMI announcement, and this explanation does not add any. Resolution depends on whether CMI issues a qualifying declaration by the listed time. The rules name CMI's website as the primary source [1]. A later snapshot could show different prices, so readers should check the provider's current data before relying on any figure here.
References
- Polymarket: Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event asking whether the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) will declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by a listed date. The rules are the main evidence here. According to the contract text, the market resolves Yes if CMI awards a Millennium Prize for the Riemann Hypothesis, or otherwise officially declares the hypothesis solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise it resolves No [1]. The rules set a high bar on what counts. A Millennium Prize award qualifies, but an award is not required. An official CMI statement that the hypothesis has been solved is sufficient on its own [1]. The rules also state that a published or publicly posted proof does not qualify by itself, regardless of whether the mathematical community accepts it [1]. The contract says the resolution does not depend on whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, or on whether a prize recipient accepts or declines a prize [1]. It also accepts any form of resolution CMI recognizes, including a positive proof, a counterexample, or a disproof [1]. The primary resolution source is official information from CMI, with its website named as the example location [1]. The contract allows a consensus of credible reporting to be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred, but the question is still whether CMI itself makes the declaration [1]. The event contains two markets with different listed end dates, one tied to December 31, 2026 and one to December 31, 2027. Their listed end times fall at 11:59 PM ET on those dates, which correspond to early January of the following year in UTC [1]. A listed end date is a deadline in the contract rules, not an announced date for any CMI event. The two markets are separate contracts that share one event, and their prices are not directly comparable as a measure of relative likelihood beyond what the snapshot shows.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether CMI formally declares the Riemann Hypothesis solved within each listed window. It does not measure whether a proof is accepted by mathematicians, whether a paper has been posted, or whether the wider community agrees on the result. Because a qualifying declaration must come from CMI, the contract separates an official institutional decision from informal recognition of a result [1]. The supplied background on the Poincare conjecture describes it as a theorem about the characterization of the 3-sphere in geometric topology [2], but that entry does not address the Riemann Hypothesis or CMI's decisions.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a published proof of the Riemann Hypothesis resolve the market by itself?
No. The rules state that a published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community [1].
Is a Millennium Prize award required for a Yes resolution?
No. A Millennium Prize award qualifies as an official declaration but is not required. An official CMI statement that the Riemann Hypothesis has been solved is sufficient on its own [1].
Does it matter if artificial intelligence helped produce the solution?
According to the rules, whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence will not be considered [1].
What happens if a prize recipient declines the prize?
The rules state that whether a recipient accepts or declines a prize will not be considered in resolving the market [1].
Where will the market check for a qualifying declaration?
The primary resolution source is official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute, and the rules give its website as an example. A consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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