Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
PM $1.41M
1
3
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
PM $1.41M
1
3
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is March 31 at 19.5%.
Polymarket
- March 3119.5%
- December 317.5%
- October 310.8%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $1.41M
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers three Polymarket contracts under one event, each asking whether Israeli forces will withdraw from beyond the Litani River by a different deadline: October 31, December 31, and March 31 [1]. The rules resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of a planned or future withdrawal does not count, and the rules state that "an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice" [1].
The primary resolution source is "information from the Israeli government," but "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used" [1]. The listed close times for the three contracts are 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z, 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, and 2027-04-01T03:59:00.000Z [1]. These times line up with 11:59 PM ET on each stated date, so the listed contract closes match the wording.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z, and the source was retrieved at the same time [1]. They are not live quotes. Yes prices were 0.0095 for October 31, 0.055 for December 31, and 0.195 for March 31 [1]. The No prices were 0.9905, 0.945, and 0.805, respectively [1].
Each contract has its own deadline, so the prices should be read separately. The higher Yes prices on later deadlines are consistent with more time remaining, but this snapshot does not explain why prices moved or whether they will move. The sample includes all three saved markets for this event, and the coverage record reports no partial sample [1]. The provider's warning, however, says this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1].
What remains uncertain
The event-level "Listed end time" in the source is 2026-09-01T03:59:00.000Z, which is earlier than the observation time and earlier than all three contract close times [1]. This source does not explain the difference, so readers should check the platform's current event page before relying on any close time.
The snapshot also cannot show trading depth, the number of participants, or whether the displayed prices could be executed. Differences between these prices and prices on other platforms should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity without checking matching rules and close times, and this evidence includes no other platform.
References
- Polymarket: Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks whether Israeli ground forces will withdraw from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by a specified date. Under the stated rules, the market resolves to "Yes" if Israel announces that it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the deadline, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves to "No" [1]. The rules say an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal does not count [1]. The rules also set a flexible standard. An announcement is sufficient even if some specified territory remains under Israeli control or if Israeli ground incursions continue [1]. The primary resolution source is information from the Israeli government, but an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used [1]. Because the rules depend on an announcement or a broad reporting consensus, the contract tracks an official or widely reported statement, not a measured military position on the ground. The saved event record for this contract is titled with the Litani question and lists three date-specific markets, each asking whether the withdrawal happens by a different deadline. The event record itself lists an end time of 3:59 AM UTC on 1 September 2026 [1], while the individual market records carry different end dates. These dates describe when the contracts close under their listed terms. They are not announced events, and they do not indicate that a withdrawal is scheduled.
Historical Context
In 1978, Israel invaded southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, and the Security Council responded with Resolutions 425 and 426 and the creation of UNIFIL [3]. In 2026, the Israeli Defense Forces publicly revealed a raid that crossed the Litani and occupied ground on its northwestern bank within the wider 2026 Lebanon War [2]. These events are the background to the contract's question, which concerns whether Israeli ground forces will leave the territory beyond the river.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Israel will announce a full withdrawal of its ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by a set deadline. Its wording matters because a planned or future withdrawal does not count, and remaining Israeli control in some areas does not block a "Yes" outcome if an announcement of full withdrawal beyond the river is made [1]. Traders and readers can use the contract's price as a snapshot of market expectations about this specific resolution standard, but a price is not an executable quote or a verified probability of the outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-20 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does an announcement of a planned withdrawal resolve the market to Yes?
No. The rules state that an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution [1].
Does Israel need to leave every area it controls in Lebanon?
Not for this contract's wording. The rules state that an announcement of withdrawal from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River is sufficient even if some specified territory remains under Israeli control or ground incursions continue [1].
Who decides the outcome?
The primary resolution source is information from the Israeli government. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a withdrawal may also be used [1].
Why do the markets have different end dates?
The saved records list different deadlines for separate markets under the same event, including December 31 and October 31 style dates, while the event record lists 1 September 2026 [1]. These are contract closing dates from the listed terms, not announced events, so they should be checked against the contract rules before use.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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