GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Name: Which Senate races will be within 5%?
End: 2026-11-03T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$58.37K

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Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Vol

$58.37K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

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Polymarket

markets · $58.37K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $58.37K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

18 markets tracked

Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(18)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	79%
Will the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	64%
Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	62%
Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	59%
Will the South Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	59%
Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	58%
Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	56%
Will the North Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	42%
Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	41%
Will the New Hampshire 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	39%
Will the Florida Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	37%
Will the Georgia 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	30%
Will the Kansas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	24%
Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	22%
Will the New Mexico 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	11%
Will the Montana 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	10%
Will the Colorado 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	5%
Will the Virginia 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

79%

Top Probability

$58.37K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividin

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which Senate races will be within 5%?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (60 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividin

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $58.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $184.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.32)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 56.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 64.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 59.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the New Hampshire 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Virginia 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.6% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the New Mexico 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $6.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the Colorado 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the Florida Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the North Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the Georgia 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $9.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the Montana 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.4% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the South Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $109
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the Kansas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $250
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics