Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

Name: Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?
End: 2027-08-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$81.32K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

Vol

$81.32K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $81.32K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $81.32K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

21 markets tracked

Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(21)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?	Poly	23%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + V?	Poly	20%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S?	Poly	20%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C?	Poly	11%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L?	Poly	10%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + C?	Poly	9%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + SD?	Poly	6%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + V?	Poly	5%
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of Sweden?	Poly	5%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + C?	Poly	1%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + M?	Poly	0%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?	Poly	0%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + L?	Poly	0%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + C + L?	Poly	0%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M?	Poly	0%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + L?	Poly	0%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Poly	0%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD?	Poly	0%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + SD?	Poly	0%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + C + V?	Poly	0%
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + V?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

23%

Top Probability

$81.32K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The follow

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 1, 2027 (294 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.

A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.

The follow

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.

A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $81.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $247.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.33)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $7.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + V?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $12.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $10.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + V?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + C?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $7.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + C + V?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $298
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + V?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $527
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.4% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + SD?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.6% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + C?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $7.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + L?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + L?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $468
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + M?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + C + L?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + SD?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $384
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of Sweden?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics