Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event asks whether the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of an official Saturn token will be above a stated threshold one day after launch. The source states that FDV is "determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price," and that the market "will resolve to 'Yes' if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Saturn's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch" [1]. The rules define "1 day after launch" as "4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch" [1].

The rules also exclude some token types. "Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count" [1]. The token must be "actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch" [1]. If no token launches by the deadline, the market resolves "No" [1]. The listed end time is 2028-01-01T05:00:00.000Z [1]. That is a closing time in the contract rules, not an announced launch date, and the evidence does not say whether a launch has occurred.

Reading the snapshot

The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z and retrieved at 2026-10-16T05:59:16.590Z [1]. These are the only time references in the evidence. The prices describe that observation and are not live quotes or verified probabilities.

The event contains ten thresholds, from $50M to $1B, and all saved markets are included in this sample [1]. Yes prices fall as thresholds rise. For example, the $100M market shows Yes at 0.715, the $200M market shows Yes at 0.475, and the $1B market shows Yes at 0.0255 [1]. Each market's Yes and No prices sum to 1 in the snapshot. Prices reflect what traders were quoting at observation time, not a confirmed outcome.

Each threshold is a separate contract with the same wording and end time. The differences between them come only from the dollar value in the title, so prices across thresholds describe a single valuation ladder, not independent events.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not establish that Saturn has launched a token, what its supply or current price is, or why any price moved. It also does not show trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants. The sample warning states that the saved markets do not prove the provider lists every possible outcome [1].

No other platform appears in the evidence, so there is no basis for comparing these prices with other contracts. Differences in wording, resolution sources, or close times across platforms would need separate verification before any comparison.

References

1. Polymarket: Saturn FDV above ___ one day after launch?. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.