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NY-12 Democratic primary margin of victory?

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NY-12 Democratic primary margin of victory?

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Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 4% and 6%?

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Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 4% and 6%?	Kalshi	62%
Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 2% and 4%?	Kalshi	37%
Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 0% and 2%?	Kalshi	2%
Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 8% and 10%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 6% and 8%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be above 10%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Jack Schlossberg in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be above 0%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Alex Bores in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 8% and 10%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Alex Bores in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 6% and 8%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Alex Bores in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be above 10%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Alex Bores in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 4% and 6%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Alex Bores in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 2% and 4%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Alex Bores in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 0% and 2%?	Kalshi	1%

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About This Event

On Jun 23, 2026 If the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary falls within X to Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Micah Lasher minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Micah Lasher if Micah Lasher wins, or the c

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** NY-12 Democratic primary margin of victory?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Jun 23, 2026

If the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary falls within X to Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Micah Lasher minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Micah Lasher if Micah Lasher wins, or the c

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary falls within 8% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 8% and 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 6% and 8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be above 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 4% and 6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 62.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 2% and 4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 0% and 2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Jack Schlossberg in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be above 0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Alex Bores in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 8% and 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Alex Bores in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 6% and 8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the margin of victory for Alex Bores in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be above 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the margin of victory for Alex Bores in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 4% and 6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the margin of victory for Alex Bores in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 2% and 4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the margin of victory for Alex Bores in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 0% and 2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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KALSHIElections

NY-12 Democratic primary margin of victory?

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 4% and 6%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.0¢No 38.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 4% and 6%?

If the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary falls within 4% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For p

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 2% and 4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 37.0¢No 63.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 2% and 4%?

If the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary falls within 2% to 4%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For p

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 0% and 2%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 0% and 2%?

If the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary falls within 0% to 2%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For p

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 8% and 10%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 8% and 10%?

If the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary falls within 8% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 6% and 8%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 6% and 8%?

If the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary falls within 6% to 8%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For p

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NY-12 Democratic primary margin of victory?

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Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 4% and 6%?

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Events (1)

NY-12 Democratic primary margin of victory?

Markets (13)

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 4% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 4% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 2% and 4%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 2% and 4%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 0% and 2%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 0% and 2%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 8% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 8% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 6% and 8%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 6% and 8%?

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Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 4% and 6%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

NY-12 Democratic primary margin of victory?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 4% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 4% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 2% and 4%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 2% and 4%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 0% and 2%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 0% and 2%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 8% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 8% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 6% and 8%?

Will the margin of victory for Micah Lasher in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be between 6% and 8%?

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