Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

When will Trump's next address to the nation be?

Total Volume

$6.23K

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When will Trump's next address to the nation be?

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$6.23K

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

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markets · $6.23K

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $6.23K

100%

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3 markets tracked

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Jan 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	74%
Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	59%
Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Nov 1, 2026?	Kalshi	36%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

74%

Top Probability

$6.23K

Volume

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About This Event

Presidential address to the nation If President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications, from before Issuance, do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will Trump's next address to the nation be?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Presidential address to the nation

If President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications, from before Issuance, do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details qualifies fo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Nov 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 59.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

When will Trump's next address to the nation be?

Volume$6.23K

Markets3

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KALSHI

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.5¢No 26.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Jan 1, 2027?

If President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details qualifies fo

KALSHI

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Dec 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 59.0¢No 41.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Dec 1, 2026?

If President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details qualifies fo

KALSHI

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Nov 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 36.0¢No 64.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Nov 1, 2026?

If President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details qualifies fo

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Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Jan 1, 2027?

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Events (1)

When will Trump's next address to the nation be?

Markets (3)

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Dec 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Dec 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Nov 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Nov 1, 2026?

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Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Jan 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will Trump's next address to the nation be?

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Dec 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Dec 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Nov 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Nov 1, 2026?

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