GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?

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Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?

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17 markets tracked

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (No other person)

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Single-Platform Markets(17)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (No other person)	Kalshi	51%
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Dan Driscoll)	Kalshi	10%
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Joni Ernst)	Kalshi	8%
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Ron DeSantis)	Kalshi	5%
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Steve Feinberg)	Kalshi	5%
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Mike Rogers)	Kalshi	3%
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Wesley Hunt)	Kalshi	3%
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Mike Pompeo)	Kalshi	2%
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Elbridge Colby)	Kalshi	2%
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Keith Kellogg)	Kalshi	2%
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Tom Cotton)	Kalshi	2%
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Trae Stephens)	Kalshi	1%
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Mike Gallagher)	Kalshi	1%
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Christopher Miller)	Kalshi	1%
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Bill Hagerty)	Kalshi	1%
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Mike Waltz)	Kalshi	1%
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Kalshi	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

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$0.00

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About This Event

Next Secretary of Defense If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is X then the market resolves to Yes. Acting and Interim positions don't count. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Next Secretary of Defense

If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is X then the market resolves to Yes. Acting and Interim positions don't count. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is Dan Driscoll, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Acting and Interim positions don't count. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Dan Driscoll)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Wesley Hunt)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Trae Stephens)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Ron DeSantis)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (No other person)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Mike Gallagher)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Elbridge Colby)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.6% (0.0%)]

### 8. Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Christopher Miller)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Bill Hagerty)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Tulsi Gabbard)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Tom Cotton)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Steve Feinberg)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.7% (0.0%)]

### 13. Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Mike Waltz)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 14. Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Mike Rogers)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.6% (0.0%)]

### 15. Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Mike Pompeo)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Keith Kellogg)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.6% (0.0%)]

### 17. Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Joni Ernst)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?

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Markets17

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KALSHI

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (No other person)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (No other person)

If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is no other person, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Acting and Interim positions don't count. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Dan Driscoll)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Dan Driscoll)

If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is Dan Driscoll, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Acting and Interim positions don't count. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Joni Ernst)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Joni Ernst)

If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is Joni Ernst, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Acting and Interim positions don't count. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Ron DeSantis)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Ron DeSantis)

If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is Ron DeSantis, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Acting and Interim positions don't count. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Steve Feinberg)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.4¢No 94.7¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Steve Feinberg)

If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is Steve Feinberg, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Acting and Interim positions don't count. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?

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Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (No other person)

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Events (1)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?

Markets (17)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (No other person)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (No other person)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Dan Driscoll)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Dan Driscoll)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Joni Ernst)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Joni Ernst)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Ron DeSantis)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Ron DeSantis)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Steve Feinberg)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Steve Feinberg)

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Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (No other person)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (No other person)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (No other person)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Dan Driscoll)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Dan Driscoll)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Joni Ernst)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Joni Ernst)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Ron DeSantis)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Ron DeSantis)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Steve Feinberg)

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? (Steve Feinberg)

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