NV-02 Republican nominee? | PredictPedia

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15 markets tracked

Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

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Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?	Kalshi	67%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02?	Kalshi	17%
Will Fred Simon Jr. be the Republican nominee for NV-02?	Kalshi	8%
Will William Conrad be the Republican nominee for NV-02?	Kalshi	1%
Will Thomas Doyle be the Republican nominee for NV-02?	Kalshi	1%
Will Sherman Tylawsky be the Republican nominee for NV-02?	Kalshi	1%
Will Rick Shepherd be the Republican nominee for NV-02?	Kalshi	1%
Will Michael Smith be the Republican nominee for NV-02?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jesse Watts be the Republican nominee for NV-02?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jerry Olsen be the Republican nominee for NV-02?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jennifer Billat be the Republican nominee for NV-02?	Kalshi	1%
Will George Forbush be the Republican nominee for NV-02?	Kalshi	1%
Will Douglas Miller be the Republican nominee for NV-02?	Kalshi	1%
Will Bruce Grego be the Republican nominee for NV-02?	Kalshi	1%
Will Andrea Lowe be the Republican nominee for NV-02?	Kalshi	1%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, April 19, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** NV-02 Republican nominee?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** NV-02 (R)

If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NV-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If William Conrad wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NV-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after William Conrad wins the party's nomination."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will William Conrad be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Thomas Doyle be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Sherman Tylawsky be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Rick Shepherd be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Michael Smith be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jesse Watts be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Jerry Olsen be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Jennifer Billat be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will George Forbush be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Fred Simon Jr. be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.3% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Douglas Miller be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Bruce Grego be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Andrea Lowe be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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NV-02 Republican nominee?

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Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

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Events (1)

NV-02 Republican nominee?

Markets (15)

Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will Fred Simon Jr. be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will Fred Simon Jr. be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will William Conrad be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will William Conrad be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will Thomas Doyle be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will Thomas Doyle be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

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Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

NV-02 Republican nominee?

Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will Fred Simon Jr. be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will Fred Simon Jr. be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will William Conrad be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will William Conrad be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will Thomas Doyle be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will Thomas Doyle be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

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Discussion

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