
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on November 5?
PM $8.3K
1
11
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on November 5?

PM $8.3K
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 9°C at 48%.
Polymarket
- 9°C48%
- 10°C41.5%
- 8°C7.5%
- 11°C2.6%
- 7°C0.9%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $8.3K
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (EHAM) on 5 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (EHAM) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. An observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded. Each market in this event states its range in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and that whole Celsius value determines which range contains it. For example, 13.9°C counts as 14°C; 17.4°C counts as 17°C; 16.5°C counts as 17°C; −1.7°C counts as −2°C; −8.5°C counts as −8°C. An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local time (including any daylight-saving shift in effect), falls on the observation date. This market will resolve at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date. In the event that the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that neither source has published data sufficient to determine a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes to observations within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. Where the first routine observation for the following date is published before that deadline, resolution is determined from a read taken after it. Where it is not, resolution is determined from a read taken at that deadline. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be the routine observations for Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (EHAM) published here: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=EHAM&format=raw&date=2026-11-06T02:00:00Z&hours=30
Snapshot observed 2026-11-03T21:00:06.031Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks which temperature range contains the highest temperature reported at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (EHAM) on 5 November 2026. The qualifying value comes from routine METAR observations, and "A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count" [1]. The hourly temperature remark is read in tenths of a degree, but each range is stated in whole degrees Celsius and the value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with halves rounded up [1]. The rules give examples, such as "13.9°C counts as 14°C" and "16.5°C counts as 17°C" [1].
Resolution timing matters. The market resolves "at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first" [1]. The source lists an end time of 2026-11-05T12:00:00.000Z [1]. That is a listed close time in the contract data, not a report of what the weather was.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-11-03T21:00:06Z, and the material was retrieved at 2026-11-04T00:48:33Z. These are the most recent figures in the evidence, but they describe that earlier moment, not live conditions.
The most-priced range was 9°C, with a Yes price of 0.495 and a No price of 0.505. The 10°C range had a Yes price of 0.335, and 8°C had 0.115 [1]. Lower-priced ranges, including 2°C or below and 12°C or higher, carried Yes prices under 0.01 or near 0.003 in this sample [1].
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Yes prices in this sample add up to roughly 1.04, so they should not be read as a clean probability distribution. Volume is not the same as liquidity or the number of traders, and the evidence does not say how many traders took part.
What remains uncertain
All 11 saved markets for this event are included, and the sample is not marked as partial [1]. The provider warns that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. A lower price on any range here does not mean that range is less likely in the real world.
The evidence does not include any forecast, observed temperature, or news about Amsterdam weather. It also does not compare this contract with any other platform. Differences in wording, close times, or prices across contracts should not be treated as arbitrage without matching their rules.
References
- Polymarket: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on November 5?. Provider data observed 2026-11-03T21:00:06.031Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 4, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event asking which temperature range will contain the highest temperature reported at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (EHAM) on 5 November 2026 [1]. Each market in the event is a range in whole degrees Celsius, so the contract is settled by a single observed maximum rather than by a forecast or a general weather judgment [1]. The event's listed end time is 2026-11-05T12:00:00Z, but that is the time recorded in the contract rules and does not mean the temperature has been observed or the market has resolved [1]. The qualifying value is the highest hourly temperature remark found in any routine METAR observation for EHAM on that date [1]. The hourly remark is a group beginning with the letter T followed by eight digits, where the first digit gives the sign and the next three give the temperature in tenths of a degree Celsius [1]. Observations labeled SPECI are special reports and do not count, while any other report, including one issued off the nominal hour, is treated as routine [1]. If a routine observation lacks the hourly remark, the rules direct the reader to the temperature group in the body of that observation, which is given in whole degrees Celsius [1]. Reports that contain no temperature in either place are disregarded [1]. The rules round the qualifying value to the nearest whole degree, with a value ending exactly in one half rounded up, and the rounded figure decides the range [1]. Time stamps are converted to the station's local time, including any daylight-saving shift, to decide whether an observation falls on the observation date [1]. Corrected reports (marked COR) count as well, so the report the resolution source displays for each observation time is the one that is used [1]. Resolution timing is set by the rules. The market resolves when the first routine METAR for the following day is issued, or by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, whichever comes first [1]. The primary source is the Aviation Weather Center's routine observations for EHAM [1]. If that source has published no routine temperature report for the date by the deadline, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used [1]. If neither source has published enough data to determine a temperature by the deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. Where a source publishes clearly erroneous data caused by technical or operational error, or by unauthorized interference, the market may stay open for up to seven calendar days (ET) to allow for a correction, and Polymarket may issue a clarification if no correction appears [1]. The Amsterdam event is a single-station weather contract. The historical background in the supplied material concerns a different subject: a series of severe heatwaves in Europe that began in late May 2026 and broke temperature records in several countries, including the Netherlands [2]. That context describes earlier months of 2026 and does not establish conditions for 5 November, so it should not be read as a forecast or as an update on the contract.
Historical Context
The supplied background describes several severe heatwaves in Europe starting on 24 May 2026, with record temperatures reported in countries including the Netherlands, France, Ireland and the United Kingdom, and temperatures described as the highest ever recorded for May [2]. This history concerns late spring and summer 2026 and does not identify weather conditions for the contract date.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the highest qualifying temperature at EHAM on 5 November 2026, expressed in whole degrees Celsius [1]. Because the rules specify which report types count, how values are rounded, and which fallback sources apply, the outcome depends on those definitions as much as on the weather itself [1]. Readers comparing ranges should note that a range's price reflects market activity at a dated snapshot and is not a verified probability of that outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-03 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What observation determines the outcome?
The qualifying value is the highest hourly temperature remark in any routine METAR for EHAM on the observation date, with SPECI reports excluded [1].
How are temperatures rounded into ranges?
The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, with values ending exactly in one half rounded up, and the rounded value determines the range [1].
What happens if the primary source has no usable data?
The Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used if the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine temperature observation for the date by 11:59 PM ET on the following day [1]. If neither source has enough data by then, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
When does the market resolve?
It resolves at the issuance of the first METAR for the station on the following day or by 11:59 PM ET on that day, whichever comes first [1].
Do corrected reports count?
The rules state that the report the resolution source shows for a given observation time counts whether or not it is marked COR, and changes are considered until the first datapoint for the following date is published [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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