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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Highest temperature in Helsinki on November 5?

Highest temperature in Helsinki on November 5?
Vol

PM $8.8K

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Events

1

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Markets

11

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Nov 4, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 8°C at 61.5%.

Polymarket

  1. 8°C61.5%
  2. 9°C21%
  3. 7°C13.5%
  4. 5°C0.3%
  5. 6°C0.3%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $8.8K

Reported volume · provider units

11

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 4, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Helsinki Vantaa Airport (EFHK) on 5 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Helsinki Vantaa Airport (EFHK) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. An observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded. Each market in this event states its range in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and that whole Celsius value determines which range contains it. For example, 13.9°C counts as 14°C; 17.4°C counts as 17°C; 16.5°C counts as 17°C; −1.7°C counts as −2°C; −8.5°C counts as −8°C. An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local time (including any daylight-saving shift in effect), falls on the observation date. This market will resolve at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date. In the event that the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that neither source has published data sufficient to determine a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes to observations within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. Where the first routine observation for the following date is published before that deadline, resolution is determined from a read taken after it. Where it is not, resolution is determined from a read taken at that deadline. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be the routine observations for Helsinki Vantaa Airport (EFHK) published here: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=EFHK&format=raw&date=2026-11-06T01:00:00Z&hours=30

Snapshot observed 2026-11-03T21:00:06.031Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The event asks which temperature range contains the highest temperature reported at Helsinki Vantaa Airport (EFHK) on 5 November 2026 [1]. The rules count only routine METAR observations. Reports beginning with SPECI do not count [1]. The hourly temperature remark is used when present, and the body temperature group is a fallback that is rounded to whole degrees [1]. Each range is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with exact halves rounded up, so the rules state that "16.5°C counts as 17°C" [1].

The eleven markets are not worded identically. Most are single-degree questions, such as "Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 5?" The lower and upper brackets are open-ended: "1°C or below" and "11°C or higher" [1]. Each market is a separate contract, so a Yes price on one bracket cannot be read as the complement of another.

Resolution timing is set by the rules. The market resolves at the first METAR issuance on the following day or by 11:59 PM ET on that day, whichever comes first, and a fallback source applies if the primary source lacks data [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-05T12:00:00.000Z [1].

Reading the snapshot

The saved prices were observed at 2026-11-03T21:00:06.031Z and retrieved at 2026-11-04T00:44:20.034Z [1]. They are a record of that observation, not a live quote. The highest Yes price in the sample is 0.56 for 8°C, followed by 0.295 for 9°C and 0.16 for 7°C [1]. The remaining eight Yes prices are at or below 0.0065 [1].

The sample is complete for this event. All 11 markets are included, and the sample is not marked as partial [1]. Even so, the Yes prices sum to about 1.04, which means the snapshot does not give a clean probability distribution. These are displayed prices, not executable quotes, and the saved data does not show depth or trade sizes.

The sample does not show why any price was set. It also does not show how many traders hold each view. Volume figures are not included in this summary and would not indicate liquidity even if they were.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not establish the actual temperature, the resolution outcome, or whether any market has closed. The fallback source is described in the rules but its data is not in the supplied evidence [1]. The rules also allow the market to stay open up to seven calendar days if a clearly erroneous value is published, so resolution may be delayed [1].

Readers should compare contracts only on their own wording, rounding rules, and closing times. Prices from this snapshot should be treated as a record of one moment in time.

References

  1. Polymarket: Highest temperature in Helsinki on November 5?. Provider data observed 2026-11-03T21:00:06.031Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Nov 4, 2026 UTC

Overview

The contract "Highest temperature in Helsinki on November 5?" resolves to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Helsinki Vantaa Airport, identified by the station code EFHK, on 5 November 2026 [1]. Helsinki is the capital and most populous city in Finland [3]. The event contains separate markets for individual whole-degree Celsius ranges, and each market is judged against the same airport observations [1]. The qualifying value comes from routine METAR observations. Reports whose line begins with SPECI are special observations and do not count. Every other report counts as routine, including reports issued off the nominal hour and reports with no METAR or SPECI label [1]. For each routine report, the rules first look at the hourly temperature remark, a group that begins with the letter T followed by eight digits. The first digit gives the sign, the next three give the temperature in tenths of a degree Celsius, and the dew point that follows is not used [1]. If a routine report has no hourly temperature remark, the whole-degree temperature in the body of the report governs for that observation [1]. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree. A value ending exactly in one half is rounded up to the next higher whole degree, so the rules give examples such as 16.5 counting as 17 and negative 8.5 counting as negative 8 [1]. An observation counts when its time stamp, converted to the station's local time including any daylight-saving shift, falls on the observation date [1]. The market resolves when the first METAR for the following day is issued, or by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, whichever comes first [1]. If the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine temperature observation for the date by that deadline, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used instead. If neither source has published enough data to determine a temperature by the deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. Corrected reports are treated as normal reports if the resolution source shows them, and changes are considered only until the first datapoint for the following date is published [1]. If the source publishes clearly erroneous data caused by technical or operational error, the market may stay open for up to seven calendar days so a correction can be considered [1]. The saved rules and listing were retrieved from a snapshot observed at 21:00 UTC on 3 November 2026, and the listed end time is 12:00 UTC on 5 November 2026 [1]. The observation date named in the rules describes which day's readings count; it is not an announcement of a weather event.

Why It Matters

The contract measures a single number: the highest qualifying routine airport temperature reported at Helsinki Vantaa Airport on the named date [1]. Because the rules specify which report types count, how values are rounded, and which backup source applies, the outcome depends on those details rather than on general weather descriptions [1]. Each range market pays out only if its bracket contains the resolved value, so the set of markets is a way of asking which bracket the airport's reported maximum will fall into [1]. The market prices shown in this snapshot are observations of prices at one moment, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved event includes all 11 markets that the provider stored for this event, but that does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for the contract [1].

Snapshot context

The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-03 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]

Frequently Asked Questions

Do special weather observations count toward the highest temperature?

No. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Other reports are treated as routine, including off-hour reports and reports without a METAR or SPECI label [1].

How is the temperature rounded before it is matched to a range?

The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, and a value ending exactly in one half is rounded up to the next higher whole degree. The rules give examples such as 16.5 counting as 17 [1].

What happens if the main source does not publish a temperature?

If the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If neither source has enough data by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].

Can a corrected observation change the result?

The report that the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction. Changes are considered only until the first datapoint for the following date has been published. If clearly erroneous data is published, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days so a correction can be considered [1].

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Saved Nov 4, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

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Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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