Best AI this week
K 45.1K contracts
1
9
Best AI this week
K 45.1K contracts
1
9
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Gemini at 84.5%.
Kalshi
- Gemini84.5%
- Claude13%
- ChatGPT1%
- Grok0.5%
- Kimi0.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 45.1K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
On Nov 2, 2026 If X has the top-ranked LLM on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank, UB, then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T18:00:06.173Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event is titled "Best AI this week" and is in the Science and Technology category [1]. Its rule text states: "If X has the top-ranked LLM on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] Each listed model has its own Yes contract, so each one asks whether that model holds the top rank on the stated date [1].
The rules also set tie-breaks. If two models are tied under Rank, UB, the model with the highest Arena Score wins. If they are still tied, the model with the most votes wins, and if they remain tied, the earlier release wins [1]. The source also says to check the "Remove Style Control" toggle when checking the source [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation time is 2026-10-26T18:00:06.173Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-26T20:41:04.421Z [1]. These values describe that observation only. They are not live or executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
Nine Kalshi markets are saved for this event, and all nine are included [1]. Gemini has the highest Yes price at 0.925. Claude is at 0.08 and ChatGPT at 0.02. Kimi, MUSE, Grok, Dola, Amazon Nova, and Qwen are each at 0.005 [1]. Because each contract is a separate yes or no question, these figures should be read individually. They should not be summed or averaged.
The listed close times also differ from the rule date. The rules refer to Nov 2, 2026, but every market shows an end date of 2026-12-03T15:00:00.000Z, while the event excerpt says the listed end time is not supplied [1]. The evidence does not explain this gap, so readers should check the platform's settlement terms directly. Volume is not included in this snapshot, so it cannot be used to judge liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The saved event contains nine markets, but the sample warning states that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible model [1]. Nothing here indicates whether an omitted model would have a lower price. The evidence also gives no reason for any price level, no recent news, and no trader count. Finally, a price gap between this Kalshi contract and a contract on another platform should not be treated as an opportunity unless the wording, close times, and resolution rules match.
References
- Kalshi: Best AI this week. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T18:00:06.173Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract belongs to a category called Best AI this week, which asks which large language model (LLM) will be ranked first on a specific date. The provider's rules state that if X has the top-ranked LLM on November 2, 2026, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The saved event lists nine model-specific markets, each covering one named model, including Gemini, Claude, ChatGPT, Kimi, MUSE, Grok, Dola, Amazon Nova, and Qwen [1]. The rules describe how ties are handled. If two models are tied under the Rank, UB measure, the model with the higher Arena Score wins. If they remain tied, the model with more votes wins. If they are still tied, the model released earlier wins [1]. The provider also instructs that when checking the source for this market, the 'Remove Style Control' toggle should be checked [1]. Traders reading the contract should therefore look at the ranking source the rules name, not a general leaderboard or a model's own marketing. The resolution date is a rule-defined date, November 2, 2026 [1]. It is not evidence that a ranking has been announced for that day, and the provider excerpt does not supply a listed end time. The saved market records carry a separate close date field, which is a contract closing time rather than the date the ranking is evaluated, so the two should not be confused. The market data is a snapshot taken from the provider's event at a stated observation time, and it is not a live quote or a verified probability of any outcome. Anyone using the contract should check the provider's current status and rules directly.
Historical Context
Claude was released as an AI-based chatbot in March 2023, and the same source notes that it is also used in AI-assisted software development [2]. A separate background source notes that chatbots in non-agentic forms were common in 2023, and it contrasts them with agentic AI systems that can pursue goals and take actions with some independence [3]. These sources describe the field in general terms; they do not establish which model ranks first at any point in time.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a named model holds the top rank on a specified date under the provider's ranking method [1]. Because the rules name a particular ranking view and a fixed set of tie-breakers, the outcome depends on those definitions rather than on general reputation. The Rank, UB measure, Arena Score, vote counts, and release dates in the rules determine the result if models are close [1]. Each market in the event is a separate Yes or No contract on one model, so the prices of different models describe different questions and should not be compared as a single ranking.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What date determines the outcome of this contract?
The rules tie resolution to whether X has the top-ranked LLM on November 2, 2026 [1]. The date in the rules is the evaluation date defined by the contract and does not indicate that any announcement is scheduled for that day [1].
What happens if two models are tied?
The rules use a sequence of tie-breakers. The model with the higher Arena Score wins a tie under Rank, UB. If the tie remains, the model with more votes wins, and if it still remains, the model released earlier wins [1].
Does a higher price mean a model is more likely to win?
The market prices are snapshots from the provider and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so a higher price should not be read as a confirmed likelihood of winning [1]. Prices from different model markets also describe different questions and should not be compared as a single ranking.
Does the event list every AI model that could rank first?
The saved event includes nine model markets, but the provider's sample warning states that including all saved markets does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome [1]. The event therefore covers only the models listed in the saved record.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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